As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout. Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI. Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… The daily … continue reading →
Tag Archives: CL
With the S&P futures off around 100 points Tuesday night, I noted that if the selloff lasted, SPX had a very good chance of tagging the .786 retracement at 2034.97 the next day. Instead, we got the biggest overnight turnaround since Mar 2009 and a breakout of the channel SPX has been in for the … continue reading →
We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer. After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL. Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken … continue reading →
Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks. And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels. ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds. Brussels is the de … continue reading →
In our October 6 update on oil [see: Update on CL] I expressed skepticism regarding oil’s ability to continue rallying. It had just popped 30% off the Aug 24 lows, and had broken out of a triangle formed while digesting those gains. Still, I saw it declining rather than making new highs. …lower prices make … continue reading →
Oil is often viewed as a proxy for economic health. In a growing economy, energy consumption increases. This increased demand generally pressures prices higher. Likewise, a decline in oil prices often accompanies declining demand. That’s a greatly oversimplified view, of course. It ignores such important issues such as Middle East tensions, weather and refinery anomalies, … continue reading →
Oil has tumbled the past few days, begging the question “what about QE3?” It was supposed to prop up commodity prices. There are many competing theories as to the influence of elections, Saudi assistance, etc. But, the bottom line is CL had tagged some important channel lines and simply corrected. There are some pretty obvious … continue reading →
Many readers have been asking about oil. It’s not that I haven’t been interested, it’s just been a real bear to analyze. Here, after a dozen hours of racking my brain, is where I see it. Like many stock indices and currencies, Crude Light (CL) is at a critical stage. It reached 114.83 after breaking … continue reading →