VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday……leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over. continued for members… … continue reading →
Tag Archives: CL
March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%. Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May. So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively. … continue reading →
After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY. As we … continue reading →
For the first time in over two years, core CPI topped headline. Core, which ignores food and gas prices, climbed 0.4% MoM and 5.6% YoY, while headline came in at 0.1% MoM and 5.0% YoY. Not surprisingly, futures jumped at the news that headline CPI had dropped. But, our charts still show an important risk … continue reading →
Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K. When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… …it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower. continued for members… … continue reading →
After reaching our next upside target, futures have settled into a pause. No surprise, as the algo factors are doing the same. continued for members… … continue reading →
It was touch and go on Friday as XLE pushed above its 200-day moving average and WTI smacked into its 50-day. Fortunately for oil bulls and inflation enthusiasts, OPEC+ was watching the same charts and took action. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up nicely on a twofer: a not so subtle VIX breakdown… …and a very unsubtle NKD rescue (back above the SMA200 just in time for Q1) courtesy of the BoJ’s USDJPY meddling. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off marginally as the major indices coast into the end of Q1. continued for members… … continue reading →
Our yield curve model sounded the alarm on Friday. But, by the end of the day, it had backed off and cooler heads prevailed. It’s important to recognize, however, that it remains on the bubble, with only a few basis points standing between a rally and another leg down. From a fundamental standpoint, there seems … continue reading →