pebblewriter

Tag: CL

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 15, 2023

    The OPEX overnight ramp faltered with news of the UAW strike. Futures are currently off slightly despite VIX falling to levels not seen since Jan 2020.

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  • CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023

    August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy.

    Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows on algo trading. Rising inflation, driven largely by YoY comps for energy prices, should make a Fed pause less likely.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 12, 2023

    Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches.

    Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 11, 2023

    Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares.

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  • Food for Thought

    There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue.

    Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, resulting in a bear market.  Food for thought.

    It’s another quiet morning so far, with futures flat for the most part after testing our 20-day moving average target yesterday.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 6, 2023

    Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 5, 2023

    Futures are off moderately this morning on low holiday volume.

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  • PCE On the Rise

    After falling for months, YoY PCE ticked higher in July: 3.3% versus 3.0% in June. Excluding food and energy, the print was 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.The data pared some of the overnight ramp, with futures easing lower as we approach the opening bell.

    In other economic news, personal spending (0.8% MoM) rose faster than expected while income (0.2% MoM) grew slower than expected – not an optimal combination when trying to avoid a recession.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 29, 2023

    Futures are off slightly in advance of consumer confidence data due out at 10 ET.

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  • Powell Back in the Spotlight

    It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time:

    “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.”

    After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess up to the coming rise in CPI and, therefore interest rates, in his speech at Jackson Hole (1005 ET.)

    As we discussed a few days ago [see: Interesting Goings On in Currencies] the cross currents in rates and currencies are problematic for the market. We saw ample evidence yesterday when futures gave up a strong opening  – breaking out of a well-formed channel only to close deep in the red.

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