USDJPY has continued to slide since our Apr 8 call for a top [HERE.] It back-tested the broken purple channel midline on May 6, and is signalling a sell-off to at least the bottom of the purple channel (96.25 – 96.66) where it intersects with the white channel .75 line in the next day or … continue reading →
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Looks like we’re getting some follow-through this morning on Friday’s technical rally. But, this doesn’t appear to be one worth chasing unless it can push up strongly through 1560. I’ll play along on the opening with an interim long position, with tight stops for the fizzle that could come quite quickly. If 1560 is exceeded, … continue reading →
We’re set to get a nice bounce here at the bottom of the purple channel — as revised in last night’s last post. Based on where the futures are pointing, I’m not sure whether it will have legs or not. But, I’m inclined to play along on the upside, but with relatively tight stops in … continue reading →
Gold continued to melt down today, shedding another $126 and continuing the plunge that started on Friday with the critical loss of the LT channel we discussed last week, the horizontal support at 1520-1535, and the psychologically important 1500 level. Gold had a nice bounce from 1539 to 1590 after reaching the bottom of the … continue reading →
The big story this morning is the meltdown taking place in the commodities complex. Gold is especially taking it on the chin, continuing the plunge that started on Friday with the critical loss of the LT channel we discussed last week, the horizontal support at 1520-1535, and the psychologically important 1500 level. Recall gold had … continue reading →
I’ve been watching natural gas for the past few weeks, an interesting chart as suggested by a member. One quick caveat: I don’t follow the industry, nor do I have an opinion on the fundamentals. This is simply a read of the current charts as I see them. NG has been exceptionally volatile over the … continue reading →
The 2000 top shows just how “messy” tops can be. Here’s the finished picture in perfect hind-sight. It’s a very crowded chart, but every single pattern had a say in how the top unfolded. SPX had zoomed from 442 to 1478 in about 5 years, a not-too-shabby 234% gain for an annually compounded 27%. Once … continue reading →
The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus. Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close. It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →
Just about every other index has reached an important harmonic and/or chart pattern target. Given the NFP print, this could be the day SPX finally reaches 1553-1555. Best to be long on the opening, and ready to re-short fairly quickly. The dollar isn’t waiting, surging nearly 1% on the day and resolving the question as … continue reading →
If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.) Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →