Futures are flat following a strong advance yesterday and ahead of important UMich consumer sentiment.continued for members… … continue reading →
Inflation was a little higher than expected, but initial claims were also higher than expected. Since the Fed’s emphasis has seemingly shifted to the employment side of the dual mandate question, this morning’s economic data supports the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut either all at once next week or spread over the next … continue reading →
Not surprisingly, PPI came in at a level which bolstered the administration’s case for a 50 bps rate cut: -0.1% versus +0.3% expected and 0.7% prior. In our opinion, each of these data points must now feature an asterisk meaning “consider the source.” When Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for … continue reading →
Futures are flat ahead of the open as markets await important inflation data coming out the next two days. continued for members… … continue reading →
Recent very disappointing employment reports have provided the “stag-” in stagflation. This week, we’ll see whether PPI and CPI prints provide the “-flation” part. While a rate cut next week could certainly goose the markets, would it induce employers to turn on the hiring spigot? Futures are up modestly ahead of the open. continued for … continue reading →
Only 22,000 jobs were added in August, well below the 78K expected and 79K in July. The unemployment rate ticked higher, from 4.2% to 4.3%. Futures are higher on the news, however, as the slowdown bolsters the case for a rate cut when the FOMC meets on Sep 17. continued for members… … continue reading →
Jobless claims came in higher than expected, notching the highest level since June. ADP came in very light: 54K versus 59K expected and 106K prior. The 10Y gapped down to the lowest level since May 1, but futures remained flat. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are moderately higher ahead of the open following the latest vol smackdown and a legal decision that went in Google’s favor, sending GOOG 6% higher. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply as we begin the new month amid renewed tariff uncertainty. continued for members… … continue reading →
YoY Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose to 2.9% in July – even further away from the Fed’s 2.0% target. Everything else was in line with expectations. Futures were already modestly lower and were little moved after the print. continued for members… … continue reading →