Welcome to Tariffs

They’re certainly working so far, driving major indices below their 200-day moving averages. ES reached our 200-day target with ease, followed by an obligatory bounce which failed overnight. If the tariffs result in a reduction in duties charged by our trading partners, that’s all well and good. The markets wouldn’t bat an eye. Unfortunately, the … continue reading →

NVDA: Good Enough?

Judging from its price action overnight, NVDA’s earnings and outlook were good enough. As we approach the open, however, it’s obvious that it hasn’t made new highs just yet – not a good sign. Meanwhile, oil and gas bounced at critical support, allowing the 10Y to do the same as mixed economic data and Fed … continue reading →

Warren’s Wary

We can argue about what it means, but Warren Buffett clearly pulled back in the past year. The percentage of cash to equities in Berkshire’s holdings is greater than ever, recently reaching $334 billion.  Read his latest annual letter here. Meanwhile, SPX tested its 50-day moving average yet again. Futures are up moderately ahead of … continue reading →

More of the Same

S&P500 futures are flat this morning despite a hiccup in the DJIA related to UNH, down 12% in the premarket following a WSJ article reporting a DOJ investigation into billing practices. Incidentally, the investigation follows on last year’s report from HHS’s inspector general that UNH was overcharging for medicare advantage patients. That inspector general was … continue reading →