Going for Broke

No one laid a glove on Powell during his House testimony yesterday. His assertions regarding inflation and economic growth went largely unchallenged. In fact, 10Y yields are off this morning, testing 1.32 moments ago.Can he continue to fool most of the people most of the time? It’s worked out pretty well so far, with plenty … continue reading →

Powell in the Hot Seat

Powell’s testimony to the House today should be informative, but it usually isn’t. By now he’s learned that it just doesn’t pay to be honest and forthright about what’s happening in the economy (e.g. “inflation isn’t a problem.”) Wouldn’t it be nice if someone called him on it, asking him how exactly spiraling inflation is … continue reading →

Too Quiet?

Seemingly every great Western has a scene when a bunch of cowboys are riding nonchalantly through an obvious place for an ambush when one of them (the dimwit) optimistically mutters, “purdy quiet.”  Our hero knowingly replies, “yeah…too quiet” at which point all hell breaks loose. The dimwit is the first one to bite the dust. … continue reading →


One of my favorite childhood memories was playing Gin Rummy with my grandfather who, whenever he caught me with way too many cards in my hand, gleefully cried out “timber!” With seemingly everybody long equities and very few of them bothering with protection, this morning’s downturn has that kind of panicky feel. Sixty points on … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 6, 2021

Stocks rarely drop over a 3-day weekend. This one was no exception. The miniscule decline we saw in the futures last night has been all but erased despite a conciliatory 5% bump in VIX to backtest its SMA10. No fuss, no muss. continued for members… … continue reading →