Retail Sales Warn of Economic Woes

Retail sales plunged 0.8% in January, far below estimates of -0.2% and last month’s +0.4%. The miss can’t be attributed solely to seasonality, as the Jan 2023 print was a massive +3.7% gain. The annual gain from Jan 2024 was a meager 0.6%. It has been a tough week for economic data. Inflation higher than … continue reading →

A Technical Recovery

Thanks to VIX being hammered by 20% from yesterday’s highs, futures have recovered almost .50% – just enough to reach the bottom of the channel from which they broke down. SPX experienced a similar recovery late in the day, preserving (for now) the integrity of the channel that has produced a stunning 23% return since … continue reading →

Hot CPI Dashes Rate Cut Hopes

January CPI came in hotter than expected, taking a March rate cut off the table and casting serious doubts on a May rate cut. Futures are off sharply, shedding over 1% to reach the bottom of the rising green channel from Oct 2023. continued for members… … continue reading →

All Eyes on CPI

CPI, due out tomorrow morning, always plays an important role in driving interest rates and economic forecasts. This one is especially important given the extent to which the market has already rallied in anticipation of lower rates. Our gas price model for CPI shows inflation settling lower after a slight bump up over the last … continue reading →

Oh So Close…

The S&P 500 came within 11 cents of 5,000 yesterday, marking a remarkable 43% run since the October 2022 lows and 22% return since the October 2023 lows. The month of February has a mixed track record over the past 10 years, with gains and losses evenly split. Stocks frequently pause at big, round numbers … continue reading →

Algos Scoff at Hawks

No matter how often neo-hawk Fed speakers repeat it, the algos are unconcerned about the “higher rates for longer” warning. Futures are poised to make a new all-time high this morning… …because VIX has broken down (-11.4% since Monday) and is threatening to break down again.Algos are also seemingly unconcerned with rising credit card and … continue reading →

NFP Soars

Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May. The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive.  … continue reading →