They’re certainly working so far, driving major indices below their 200-day moving averages. ES reached our 200-day target with ease, followed by an obligatory bounce which failed overnight. If the tariffs result in a reduction in duties charged by our trading partners, that’s all well and good. The markets wouldn’t bat an eye. Unfortunately, the … continue reading →
Futures are moderately higher ahead of tomorrow’s implementation tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. There is no question that tariffs are inflationary, regardless of the ludicrous White House narrative. continued for members… … continue reading →
PCE came in on target at 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Core PCE was up 2.6% YoY. Although personal income shot up 0.9% (versus 0.3% expected), personal spending declined to -0.2% (-0.5% real) versus 0.3% expected. In other words, consumers’ spending is in line with declining consumer confidence, home sales and employment and slowing GDP. … continue reading →
Judging from its price action overnight, NVDA’s earnings and outlook were good enough. As we approach the open, however, it’s obvious that it hasn’t made new highs just yet – not a good sign. Meanwhile, oil and gas bounced at critical support, allowing the 10Y to do the same as mixed economic data and Fed … continue reading →
Futures were moderately higher overnight, but have pared some of their gains as we approach the open. While most traders will focus on NVDA’s earnings due out after the close, it is also important to keep an eye on CL and RB as both are testing important support. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are slightly negative this morning, with all eyes on both the economic data and NVDA earnings due out this week. Note that two chart developments – including a Head & Shoulders pattern – have embraced the market’s bearish tilt. continued for members… … continue reading →
We can argue about what it means, but Warren Buffett clearly pulled back in the past year. The percentage of cash to equities in Berkshire’s holdings is greater than ever, recently reaching $334 billion. Read his latest annual letter here. Meanwhile, SPX tested its 50-day moving average yet again. Futures are up moderately ahead of … continue reading →
S&P500 futures are flat this morning despite a hiccup in the DJIA related to UNH, down 12% in the premarket following a WSJ article reporting a DOJ investigation into billing practices. Incidentally, the investigation follows on last year’s report from HHS’s inspector general that UNH was overcharging for medicare advantage patients. That inspector general was … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately following initial claims that slightly exceeded forecasts and Fed minutes which reinforced the expectation that any further rate cuts will remain on hold. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly after SPX set new highs in a last minute spurt higher yesterday. Housing starts decreased sharply, falling 9.8% in January after a sharp increase in December. continued for members… … continue reading →