Once again, the market is celebrating the (not quite) elimination of a very serious threat to the global economy. Of course, it’s a two-week pause.  But, it gives the US an off ramp that appears less a TACO and more a magnanimous concession to peace and brotherhood.

Futures are up over 2.5%, bumping up against the falling channel top.

VX is off over 13%, but keep an eye on its RSI, which has yet to break down below a TL from last May.

Stocks aren’t quite out of the woods, perhaps reflecting the fact that it’s only a pause and not necessarily a lasting solution to high oil prices which are still in the 90s. Whether or not the Hormuz Strait is open, a lot of oil production and transportation has been interrupted, and it will take months to get it back online.

In the meantime, we will have inflation which will, at the very least, prevent any rate cuts any time soon.

The bulls also need DXY to dip below its 200-day moving average.

stay tuned…