Stocks are mixed after final Q3 GDP revisions came in slightly above the November estimate. While the print is in line with the pre-COVID data… …we have to wonder whether the economy can hold up in the face of decreasing Fed stimulus and COVID cases which are spiking as we head the holidays. continued for … continue reading →
Futures bounced sharply after plunging nearly to the 100-day moving average yesterday, ping-ponging up to backtest the 50-DMA.SPX should have a decent shot at closing yesterday’s gap before the action resumes. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply as we head into the open, weighed down by a rapid escalation in omicron cases and the apparent failure of President Biden’s Build Back Better bill after Senator Manchin announced his opposition on Sunday. continued for members… … continue reading →
From NYC Health Commissioner Dave Chokshi, MD:And, from Jay Varma, Mayor de Blasio’s public health adviser: As Varma put it: Vaccinated and boosted = risk of infection. Everyone else = much higher risk of infection, hospitalization & death. If traffic is moving at 90 mph, I’d rather get in an accident using a seatbelt and … continue reading →
On the third page of Jay Powell’s prepared remarks yesterday, he finally touches on inflation’s effect on ordinary Americans: We understand that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are committed to our price stability goal. We will use … continue reading →
We’ve been writing about the current inflation problem for years. In December 2019 for instance [see: Inflation Games], we noted that CPI was about to top 2% again and that this realization had prompted the Fed’s shift from a 2% target to a range in excess of 2% to make up for past shortfalls. Without … continue reading →
November PPI came in above estimates at 0.8% for the month and 9.6% for the year – the highest print since data were first calculated in November 2010. Futures are not amused. Several downside targets should be tagged this morning. continued for members… … continue reading →
The Fed’s experiment of pouring trillions of dollars into the markets is coming to an inglorious end. Even though an accelerated taper will still results in hundreds of billions in additional liquidity over the next several months, the writing is on the wall. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian said it well yesterday on CBS’ … continue reading →
At 6.81%, headline inflation is now the highest it has been since March 1982 (6.78%.) Originally driven by sharply rising oil and gas prices… …it is now broad-based and anything but transitory, with medical commodities the only category below the Fed’s original 2% target. Algos responded with the usual VIX smackdown which, not surprisingly, began … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately as the euphoria over omicron’s supposed demise subsides. Our targets remain the same. continued for members… … continue reading →