With the FOMC, BoJ and ECB actions behind us, this seems like a good time to review the big picture. This morning’s USDJPY, VIX and CL moves are, perhaps, the perfect reminder for how we got here, and where we’re going. Note the strong correlation between USDJPY and ES broke down on May 24 when … continue reading →
Things went very much according to plan, yesterday, with SPX plunging to our third support level before beginning the predictable meltup. And, there’s no mystery as to what was driving it.With equities just short of a breakout (again), is the drama already over? continued for members… … continue reading →
Oil prices move equity prices, plain and simple. When oil gets the sniffles, equities catch a cold. When oil drops through major support, equities just plain panic. So, it’s no surprise that equities are panicking just a little this morning, as CL is pennies away from completing a Head and Shoulders Pattern which targets 31.55. … continue reading →
It’s been a long, lonely slog since we first forecast the very contrarian view that plunging inflation would prevent the FOMC from raising rates in June. The last time I checked, Goldman had the probability of a hike at 95%. But, as we discussed in The Big Picture, May 3 the drop in oil prices … continue reading →
As discussed yesterday, stocks spent the night building a cushion based on VIX (currently off 5.4%) in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. It started just before the close, yesterday, and has built to a 6-pt gain in the futures.Actually, it’s been less of a rally, lately, and more of an effort to maintain ES at … continue reading →
Friday started off like so many other sessions, with algos working overtime to counteract the effects of the British election. Our first upside target at 2438.44 was quickly dispensed with. So, it was with some trepidation that I suggested another turning point an hour later at 2444.83. Here’s the next opportunity for SPX to top … continue reading →
Last year at about this time we noted that NDX had completed a golden cross — where the SMA50 crosses above the SMA200 — normally a strong buy signal. But, as we also discussed, such signals had been head fakes the past several times in a row. The 50-day recently crossed above the 200-day — … continue reading →
Just a quick update on VIX, which moments ago pushed below its Dec 15, 2006 lows of 9.39 — the lowest VIX had been in the lead up to the 2007-2009 market crash.The only time VIX has ever been lower was on Dec 22, 1993, when it fell as low as 9.31 shortly after its … continue reading →
When unexpected unpleasantness unfurls, you can count on central banks to pull out all the stops. Such is the case with the British election results which, like Brexit, have wreaked havoc on FX markets. EURGBP, having broken down from its rising red channel dating back to mid-2015, was well on its way to a perfectly … continue reading →
Let’s face it. The reflation trade is dead. It’s not that we don’t have inflation. It’s just that the way in which inflation is reported in the US makes it appear not to be a problem. Not only does this save mountains of moola on cost of living increases, it makes it much easier for … continue reading →