BoJ Rolls the Dice

The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates at or below zero for years. Their bet was that the suppression of interest rates (by purchasing Japan’s net issuance, the BoJ now owns over 50%) would offer sufficient protection against both inflation and the 263% debt:GDP – exacerbated by the rapid depreciation of the yen. Investors, … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

The confusion isn’t over whether the market will continue selling off. It will. The question is how far it can sell off before it’s “rescued.”  Different indices indicate anywhere from 2.2% to 20%. And, it totally depends on which index gets to call the shots. If the Dow has its way, the market is in … continue reading →

Bulls: Throwing in the Towel?

As expected, Powell and Co. were not amused by the market’s recent exuberance and decided to take things down a notch. The algos haven’t yet given up, though, with VIX still under pressure and DXY remaining oversold.The reversal is working just fine so far. But, with OPEX tomorrow and two weeks left in the year, … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Dec 14, 2022

They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one. Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat. After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the … continue reading →

Crisis Averted

Based on how the market is reacting, inflation is no longer a concern. The Fed will pivot and easy money will be back in no time. Except, as we’ve been discussing, this is one of those weeks which almost always overreacts to the upside: FOMC meeting, OPEX, end of year, etc. As noted yesterday, the … continue reading →

All In a Day’s Work

Mystified by the fact that futures ramped higher overnight even though VIX is up over 6%? It’s all in a day’s work for the algos, especially on the eve of a critical Fed decision in an OPEX week at the end of the year when the S&P 500 is facing a bearish 10/20 cross. The … continue reading →