The Chartist’s Dilemma

As a chartist, you know something’s gone haywire when a major, long-term channel breaks down and it results in higher prices.  Yet, as every chartist knows, this phenomenon has been a hallmark of the financial markets for the past several years.The S&P futures (ES) offer a very clear example.  Like all channels, the rising purple … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Dec 13, 2017

It’s that time again — when the FOMC does its level best to convince investors algos that they should be optimistic buy more equities.  Lately, this has meant a not so subtle message that rates are normalizing rising ever so slightly, inflation remains under control disappointing and the future looks strong good enough. We touched … continue reading →

PPI Tops 3%

Producer prices for final demand shot up 3.1% YoY in November, up from 2.8% in October and well above consensus at 2.9%.  It’s the highest rate of change since Jan 2012. The primary culprit: gasoline prices, which BLS officials say increased 15.8%.  Imagine what PPI would have registered if they’d used EIA-fabricated data (+17.4%) or … continue reading →

Dollar Doldrums

Yesterday marked another failed recovery attempt by the US dollar.  It started out strongly, rallying .75 from the previous day’s lows based on the tax bill advancing in the Senate.  But, political turmoil struck again.  The latest twist in the Flynn/Mueller/Trump saga wasn’t exactly dollar-positive.  DXY closed in the red for the third session in … continue reading →