And, just like that, tariffs are back – at least until June 9 when a Federal appeals court’s stay expires. Futures are off modestly as traders assess the tariff news and hotter than expected personal income and spending prints and PCE prices which were in line with expectations.University of Michigan consumer sentiment is due out … continue reading →
In a surprising twist, a federal court has potentially halted Trump’s tariff war in its tracks, saying that he exceeded his authority in imposing the most extreme tariff regime in US history. The three judge panel (including a Trump appointee) ruled unanimously that the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other … continue reading →
Futures are essentially flat in advance of today’s FOMC minutes. continued for members… … continue reading →
Once again, the arsonist sprinkled a little water on the fire and is looking for a reward. After sending markets into another freefall last week with the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU, Trump “rescued” them by delaying the start date. As expected, SPX backtested its SMA200. ES is back above its. All is … continue reading →
Futures took a nosedive this morning when Trump tweeted in quick succession that the EU trade talks were going nowhere and that Apple must move manufacturing to the US. The penalty for not bending to his will in each case is a 50% tariff. Markets are still adjusting to our new mob boss system of … continue reading →
The 10Y broke out again yesterday, sending and S&P 500 100 points lower on the day. The House’s budget bill passage, which promises to sharply hike the deficit/debt while cutting medicare and medicaid, won’t help. The next big test for bears will be SPX 5767, the 200-day moving average. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off about 0.50% as we lead up to the open. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are slightly lower as we approach the open. FWIW, Jamie Dimon is still talking overpriced equities and stagflation, stating that the risks are essentially double what the market thinks. Meanwhile, as Trump’s trade war continues, non-US investors are understandably nervous about America’s shaky finances in light of Republicans spending megabill that could add $3.3 … continue reading →
Whether it was Moody’s debt downgrade, Trump’s insane rants, or his picking a fight with corporates such WMT and AAPL, this was not a great weekend for the US. Any way you look at it, America was downgraded and markets are hinting at a “sell America” bias. Futures are off sharply with the 10Y back … continue reading →
Housing starts rose a measly 1.6% to 1.36M, but it was single family permits that really disappointed in April, coming in at 1.41M versus 1.45M expected and 1.48 prior. The slump is a reflection of falling builder sentiment due to higher Trump tariffs, a shrinking labor supply amide his crackdown on immigration, and persistently high … continue reading →