A Turning Point

Per our analog, today is the next significant turning point – important in terms of confirming the direction and distance of the market’s next move. It has done an excellent job of forecasting the reversals, rallies and drops since we first posted it on May 13 [see: Analog Watch.] The first time I came across … continue reading →

Productivity: Worst Since 1947

The first quarter decline in non-farm productivity was the largest since 1947. The chart below from briefing.com shows the 7.5% plunge, contrasted with an 11.6% increase in unit labor costs. If the country had locked down during this time, you might be able to make an argument that a recession isn’t necessarily coming. But, this … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 1, 2022

Futures are moderately higher this morning as algos respond enthusiastically to Salesforce’s earnings and ignore the ongoing meltdown in mortgage applications and uptick in COVID cases.  Here’s a snapshot of testing results at my daughter’s college, which finally reinstated a mask mandate after the positivity rate reached 10%. I think they could use a primer … continue reading →

A Crucible Moment

The Information reports that Sequoia Capital has issued a warning to its startup founders, detailing a series of moves that should be taken to avoid a “death spiral.” “Its latest warning to its portfolio companies takes the form of a 52-slide presentation, a copy of which was viewed by The Information. Sequoia described the current … continue reading →

Another Miss

Today’s miss came in April Durable Goods orders: 0.4% vs 0.8% consensus (0.3% vs 0.6% for ex-transportation.) But the real miss on everyone’s minds is the parents of those 19 children who were struck down in Uvalde, TX yesterday. Those parents will have no one to get out of bed this morning. No one to … continue reading →

Economic Data Deluge Begins

It’s a big week for economic data, with earnings and outlook announcements already setting a bearish tone.  First up this morning is April new home sales, which came in at 591k units – a 16.6% drop from March and a 32.9% plunge from April 2021. It barely beat the 2020 pandemic lows. As everyone now … continue reading →

Sure OPEX, But Then What?

Futures are up about 1% this morning – par for the course for an options expiration Friday. The Chinese prime rate cut is no doubt helping. But, what happens next week as new and pending home sales, durable goods, FOMC minutes, GDP, PCE and Michigan Sentiment come rolling in? This will be a serious test … continue reading →