SPX reached our 6009 target (from August) two days ahead of schedule, leaving ES 6064 as the last remaining upside target in the vicinity. With ES reaching 6053 overnight, this rally is either due a pullback or a breakout. In short, it’s another moment of truth for equities. continued for members… … continue reading →
It was a typical Fed press conference, with Powell ducking and dancing around any substantive revelations, when someone asked whether the election would affect the Fed’s policy decisions. It was no surprise that Powell fell back on the usual 200-word “data dependence” answer that we’ve all heard before. Then someone asked the question that was … continue reading →
The macro outlook has certainly changed over the past two days. Will the FOMC ignore it or take it into account when issuing their interest rate decision later today? ES is within 11 points of our IH&S target at 5984. continued for members… … continue reading →
Following the shocking election results in the US, futures actually tagged our downside support at the 50-day moving average and, in a 2% surge, our next upside target. The spike has all the hallmarks of a pop and drop, however, as the 10Y has broken out. continued for members… … continue reading →
Since markets are essentially frozen as we enter the most consequential week of the year, we thought this would be an opportune time to review the big picture. As always, we began the year [see: A Look Ahead at 2024] with specific targets. SPX: “The most important chart pattern for SPX is the large Inverted … continue reading →
Nonfarm payrolls were undeniably affected by the hurricane and strikes in October. Nevertheless, the plunge from 223K to 12K – well below estimates of 125K – is likely to provide the FOMC with all the cover they need to cut rates again when they meet next week. Futures have rebounded, retaking the 50-day moving average. … continue reading →
Strong economic data continues to worry investors, many of whom had pinned their hopes on Fed rate cuts. Initial claims came in at 216K versus 232K expected. Personal income rose 0.3%, in line and an increase from 0.2% last month. Personal spending rose 0.5%, also in line and an increase from the prior 0.3%. Last, … continue reading →
GDP is on track with estimates at 2.8%, but ADP payroll data was 2X estimates at 233K versus 115K. Given the Fed’s recent emphasis on employment, this morning’s data adds to the argument for at least a pause in rate cuts. The more important data, however, is tomorrow’s PCE print. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly, though SPX’s rising wedge remains intact one week ahead of the US election. Don’t look now, but the 10Y has risen to our upside target.continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s the final week before the critical US presidential election and there’s no shortage of important data ahead as well: consumer confidence tomorrow, GDP on Wednesday, initial claims, personal income and PCE on Thursday, and NFP and ISM manufacturing on Friday. To make things interesting, the Fed meets next week as well. Meanwhile, ES’ backtest … continue reading →