The Dow finally reached its 200-day moving average yesterday, one of the targets that seemed important to the algos. Perhaps significantly, it managed the tag without AAPL and COMP reaching new highs – a nifty trick – and on the same day that ES and SPX tagged our IH&S targets from Apr 6. We also … continue reading →
ES closed just above the 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93 yesterday and proceeded to conduct the usual overnight meltup, aided by a nonsensical ADP jobs report. Consequently, it is closing in on the IH&S target of 3108 from a pattern completed way back on Apr 6. At the same time, COMP – which has struggled … continue reading →
There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight. USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then … continue reading →
In 2009, in the depths of the GFC with the S&P 500 tagging 666, about 11.9% of Americans lived in poverty. In 2020, with the S&P 500 having recently reached 3393 after trillions in central bank intervention, the rate is estimated to be 12.4%, with projections of over 15% depending on how bad unemployment gets.Black … continue reading →
It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative. Gee, could 25% … continue reading →
I’ve only posted about BTC once before, back on Mar 23 in response to a member request [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.] The Dow was about to test its 2016 election day lows and, not coincidentally, the Fed had just unleashed QEinfinity. The post went as follows: Two major chart patterns jump out at me: first, … continue reading →
Q1 GDP was revised down to a negative 5% from 4.8% as Durable Goods came in at -19.4%, the worst since the financial crisis. Naturally, futures are up sharply……about equidistant between the important 200-DMA and the equally important 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93. It’s decision time for the men behind the curtain. Credibility has already … continue reading →
If you liked yesterday’s market action, you’re loving today so far. Like yesterday, the latest overnight ramp job has put ES well above its 200-DMA. Like yesterday, now we get to find out whether it will hold. It didn’t yesterday. The white acceleration channel broke down at the close, taking ES and SPX back below … continue reading →
Having attended a few football games there over the years, I can attest to how big and how loud UT’s Royal Memorial Stadium can be, especially if the Aggies or Red Raiders are in town. As official COVID-19 deaths in the US reach 100,000 today, I think about how that many souls would look if … continue reading →
Futures are up 40 points off their overnight lows as VIX was hammered after pushing briefly above its 10-DMA. It’s not unusual for charts to take on a bearish tone going into a holiday weekend. In a low volume environment such as this, however, it’s all too common for trends to reverse, currencies to pop, … continue reading →