Are Things Really Better?

Under ordinary circumstances, a 2.3% MoM bump in Durable Goods orders would be very welcome – especially on the heels of last month’s -1.3% print. When inflation is a growing concern due to the Fed’s largesse, however, it complicates things. For instance, might it cause the Fed to take its foot off the gas? Not … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 21, 2021

ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200. This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a … continue reading →

Bullard: Wait, Did I Say That?

Not that futures needed any help melting down this morning, but Jim Bullard just poured gas on the fire. Yes, Jim Bullard! The Fed president who never had a hawkish thought in his life. "We were expecting an inflationary impulse, but this has been more than what we were initially expecting," says James Bullard. "The … continue reading →

Currencies: Tick-Tock

Neither yesterday’s FOMC announcement nor Powell’s press conference produced any meaningful surprises. Yes, the dots shifted slightly, but everyone knows they’ll shift a lot more before long. Futures easily reached our initial downside target and came within 5 points (so far) of our second. But, the real action was in currencies, which were finally turned … continue reading →

The Fed’s Big Day

We’ve pretty much beat the inflation horse to death on these pages over the past six months. Bottom line, It’s too high and potentially out of control. So far, however, the Fed’s been able to hoodwink investors and algos and commandeer the bond market. Aside from making things much more difficult for the little guy … continue reading →

Time’s Up

Alarms are going off on multiple charts this morning, the day one of the most consequential Fed meetings in years kicks off. The topic on everyone’s mind, the one we’ve been warning about for the last six months, is inflation. But, if you believe Jay Powell, it’s not even something the Fed’s thinking about thinking … continue reading →