What Resistance?

ES closed just above the 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93 yesterday and proceeded to conduct the usual overnight meltup, aided by a nonsensical ADP jobs report. Consequently, it is closing in on the IH&S target of 3108 from a pattern completed way back on Apr 6. At the same time, COMP – which has struggled … continue reading →

Pop and Drop?

There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight.   USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then … continue reading →

Mind the Gap

In 2009, in the depths of the GFC with the S&P 500 tagging 666, about 11.9% of Americans lived in poverty.  In 2020, with the S&P 500 having recently reached 3393 after trillions in central bank intervention, the rate is estimated to be 12.4%, with projections of over 15% depending on how bad unemployment gets.Black … continue reading →

The Hits Keep Coming

It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative.  Gee, could 25% … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: May 28, 2020

I’ve only posted about BTC once before, back on Mar 23 in response to a member request [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.]  The Dow was about to test its 2016 election day lows and, not coincidentally, the Fed had just unleashed QEinfinity. The post went as follows: Two major chart patterns jump out at me: first, … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

Q1 GDP was revised down to a negative 5% from 4.8% as Durable Goods came in at -19.4%, the worst since the financial crisis. Naturally, futures are up sharply……about equidistant between the important 200-DMA and the equally important 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93. It’s decision time for the men behind the curtain. Credibility has already … continue reading →