S&P futures are quiet this morning, back to even after being up about 30 points overnight.continued for members… … continue reading →
What the algos giveth, David Tepper (bearish) and Q3 GDP (+3.2% vs 2.9% est. and -0.6% last) taketh away. Futures are off sharply as we approach the open. continued for members… … continue reading →
Wish I could say that the overnight ramp or the manner in which it’s being conducted was surprising. But, we’ve seen the Look! VIX is breaking down! movie so many times, it’s becoming as normal as negative interest rates. The algos don’t care whether it’s legit or not. They just see VIX off 21% from … continue reading →
The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates at or below zero for years. Their bet was that the suppression of interest rates (by purchasing Japan’s net issuance, the BoJ now owns over 50%) would offer sufficient protection against both inflation and the 263% debt:GDP – exacerbated by the rapid depreciation of the yen. Investors, … continue reading →
Futures passed on an opportunity to break out this morning, perhaps weighing the potential for a Santa Claus rally against the implications of a slew of important economic data later this week. Speaking of passing, how about that match between France and Argentina? I’m not a football nut, more of a rugby and basketball fan. … continue reading →
The confusion isn’t over whether the market will continue selling off. It will. The question is how far it can sell off before it’s “rescued.” Different indices indicate anywhere from 2.2% to 20%. And, it totally depends on which index gets to call the shots. If the Dow has its way, the market is in … continue reading →
As expected, Powell and Co. were not amused by the market’s recent exuberance and decided to take things down a notch. The algos haven’t yet given up, though, with VIX still under pressure and DXY remaining oversold.The reversal is working just fine so far. But, with OPEX tomorrow and two weeks left in the year, … continue reading →
They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one. Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat. After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the … continue reading →
Based on how the market is reacting, inflation is no longer a concern. The Fed will pivot and easy money will be back in no time. Except, as we’ve been discussing, this is one of those weeks which almost always overreacts to the upside: FOMC meeting, OPEX, end of year, etc. As noted yesterday, the … continue reading →
Mystified by the fact that futures ramped higher overnight even though VIX is up over 6%? It’s all in a day’s work for the algos, especially on the eve of a critical Fed decision in an OPEX week at the end of the year when the S&P 500 is facing a bearish 10/20 cross. The … continue reading →