Something Wicked?

Technical analysis and chart patterns are sometimes regarded as akin to witchcraft. Yet, fairly often, they prove incredibly accurate in forecasting reversal points and targets. In honor of the latest such eerily accurate forecast, and since tomorrow is Halloween, we’ll take a fresh look at whether something wicked this way comes. And, since many investors … continue reading →

GDP Beats, But…

After the government “put $5 trillion into a $3 trillion hole,” as Ares Management’s Michael Arougheti so eloquently put it, GDP bounced back sharply last quarter. Unfortunately, it’s still down 2.9% for the year.Keep in mind that this is also the advance read for the third quarter, days before an important presidential election, and that … continue reading →

Breakdown

Despite better than expected economic data this morning, both ES and SPX have now seen their channels from last March break down. Most of the algo factors driving them have also broken down. Unless Congress or the Fed pulls a stimulus rabbit out of their hats, things are going to get even messier going forward. … continue reading →

Rally Faces Another Test

Futures have given up all of Friday’s rebound gains and then some, again testing the IH&S neckline and the bottom of the rising white channel from last March. At the risk of sounding dramatic, a failure of the channel would mark the end of the current rally and usher in the correction suggested by our … continue reading →

Yield Curve Model: “Correction Imminent”

Our yield curve model is again sounding the alarm on overpriced equities. Unless the 10Y – which closed its June 8 gap this morning – declines sharply right away, the 2s10s spread signals a sharp equity downturn to finish the correction which began on Oct 12.The bad news for equities? A sharp drop in the … continue reading →

Now or Never?

According to Missouri Republican Roy Blunt, “If we’re going to do it this year, I think it’s now or never.”  Of course, a $2 trillion package will face stiff opposition in the Republican Senate, especially with more and more senators prudently distancing themselves from President Trump. The bond market is torn on whether or not … continue reading →