Here We Go Again

From NYC Health Commissioner Dave Chokshi, MD:And, from Jay Varma, Mayor de Blasio’s public health adviser: As Varma put it: Vaccinated and boosted = risk of infection. Everyone else = much higher risk of infection, hospitalization & death. If traffic is moving at 90 mph, I’d rather get in an accident using a seatbelt and … continue reading →

FOMC: Feeding the Beast

On the third page of Jay Powell’s prepared remarks yesterday, he finally touches on inflation’s effect on ordinary Americans: We understand that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are committed to our price stability goal. We will use … continue reading →

Inflation Coming Home to Roost

We’ve been writing about the current inflation problem for years.  In December 2019 for instance [see: Inflation Games], we noted that CPI was about to top 2% again and that this realization had prompted the Fed’s shift from a 2% target to a range in excess of 2% to make up for past shortfalls. Without … continue reading →

No More Free Lunch

The Fed’s experiment of pouring trillions of dollars into the markets is coming to an inglorious end. Even though an accelerated taper will still results in hundreds of billions in additional liquidity over the next several months, the writing is on the wall. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian said it well yesterday on CBS’ … continue reading →

Inflation Highest in Nearly 40 Years

At 6.81%, headline inflation is now the highest it has been since March 1982 (6.78%.)  Originally driven by sharply rising oil and gas prices… …it is now broad-based and anything but transitory, with medical commodities the only category below the Fed’s original 2% target. Algos responded with the usual VIX smackdown which, not surprisingly, began … continue reading →