SPX should reach our next downside target today — even if it is two sessions late. DXY has tagged its next downside target. USDJPY is fast approaching its target. Oil even broke down as expected. All it took was a hurricane of historic proportions and the threat of global thermonuclear war. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s been a dizzying drop for the dollar since falling through support last April. This morning, it reached our next downside target from last June [see: All About the Dollar.] Back then, DXY appeared likely to bounce sharply. But, the bounce was short-lived, and DXY has failed several subsequent tests along the way. Has it … continue reading →
Futures are up a few points on lower lows in VIX and a partial recovery in oil prices.Traders will no doubt be considering the repercussions of Harvey. The expected impact on gasoline production has sent RBOB higher by as much as 12.7% in the last four sessions. While, oil prices fell up to 1% overnight, … continue reading →
SPX dithered and dallied yesterday, but in the end tagged our downside target before the supportive forces of rising oil and falling VIX came to the rescue. Today, we’ll be watching for signs of policy changes from the brain trust gathered at Jackson Hole. Currencies, which have been active all week, are already responding. And, … continue reading →
Yesterday was an exercise in propping up equities until the close, which clearly pointed to a continuation of the slide. Thanks to oil’s pump and VIX’s dump overnight, however, the futures were able to break out of their funk and are now sporting a 6-pt gain going into the open. This leaves the downside from … continue reading →
Ordinarily, when a channel breaks down and is backtested, it means more downside. SPX nailed our backtest target yesterday. And, sure enough, the futures are currently off about 12 points.Yet, we’ve seen way too many instances over the last couple of years where a backtest overshoots and the broken channel is rejoined after, say, VIX … continue reading →
SPX came with an inch of our downside target yesterday before the meltup began. Given the ramp job overnight, it’ll probably do — especially since VIX is in a prime position to keep the ramp alive. The algos love it when a rising channel breaks down, and it’s almost certain to happen this morning.continued for … continue reading →
We’ve had a nice run, of late, as SPX, CL, VIX and USDJPY have all tagged targets where expected. As meltdowns go, this one has been very well behaved. Even the bounce we anticipated on Friday played out as expected, with the capitulation waiting until the final hour or so or trading. if SPX can … continue reading →
There’s an old saying: “live by the sword, die by the sword.” No one was complaining when algos, prompted by a soaring USDJPY and plunging VIX, nudged stocks ever higher. Now that they’ve exacerbated SPX’s drop — almost (shudder) 2.5% off the highs — will investors be as enamored? SPX’s sharply rising channel broke down … continue reading →
SPX landed right where we expected yesterday, the bottom of a sharply rising channel that — were it to continue — would levitate the index to 2500 by next week. That, of course, was before things got crazy in the currency markets. I’ve been pretty adamant that EURUSD overshot in its recent push past our … continue reading →