WW3 isn’t the dominant scenario, but it is attracting more and more adherents. Serious institutional estimates range from 18-30% depending on how things go tonight with Trump’s deadline. Polymarket rated the odds at 22% before the scenario was pulled. RAND sees a 20-30% chance of a global conflict in 2026.

Futures are off only 30 points, less than 0.50%. So, it’s safe to say that markets aren’t as worried as they could be and, perhaps, should be. Maybe it’s because Trump has a long history of chickening out after issuing bombastic threats. But, this time he just might have unwittingly set a trap for himself that cannot be easily escaped.

Unless he does back down, SPX’s chart suggests immediate downside to 6150-6225 (ES 6260.)  Stay tuned.