Futures are off moderately following initial claims that slightly exceeded forecasts and Fed minutes which reinforced the expectation that any further rate cuts will remain on hold. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly after SPX set new highs in a last minute spurt higher yesterday. Housing starts decreased sharply, falling 9.8% in January after a sharp increase in December. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly as the algo meltup should allow SPX to achieve new all-time highs. continued for members… … continue reading →
January retail sales tumbled to a negative 0.9% versus the positive 0.1% expected and last month’s +0.7%. Combined with hotter than expected inflation data the past two days, it’s not a good look for equities. Futures, however, are ignoring the data – which will only worsen with the effects expected from increasing tariffs. continued for … continue reading →
PPI came in at 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% consensus, confirming yesterday’s hotter than expected inflation outlook. Futures initially dipped, though not as much as yesterday. But, like yesterday, VIX was quickly hammered back down to recent lows, reviving equities before the opening bell. continued for members… … continue reading →
Jan CPI rose 3% YoY and 0.5% MoM, in line with our expectations but higher than consensus. Core CPI rose even more, reaching 3.3% YoY. PPI will be released tomorrow. Futures are off sharply. continued for members… … continue reading →
GC’s approach to our 3012.80 target from last April [see: Update on Gold and Silver, April 17 2024] reminds us that we’re not the only analysts concerned about tomorrow’s CPI print. As we’ve discussed for the past several months, Jan CPI should surprise to the upside. Will it be enough of a surprise to disrupt … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately as algos react to a VIX smackdown that more than offsets the latest tariff troubles and fading corporate euphoria. It remains to be seen whether the market can hold up after higher than expected inflation is reported on Wednesday. continued for members… … continue reading →
Nonfarm payrolls for January came in at 143K versus 175K expected, though average hourly earnings were +0.5% versus estimates of +0.3%. This was on top of a disappointing outlook for AMZN, currently off almost 3% in the after hours. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly after mixed economic data: hotter than expected productivity and unit labor, but higher than expected initial claims. continued for members… … continue reading →