New H&S Pattern

Nothing to do with markets per se, but this kind of story really makes you stop and think…  Anyone who thinks the same couldn’t be done just as easily with a FAB-250 from a Skyhawk is deluding themselves.


UPDATE:  3:40 PM

The H&S neckline back test we discussed in the 2:20 post below is likely complete.

Note that the head of this little H&S pattern came at the 1.618 extension of last week’s 1392-1358 decline — in other words, a Crab pattern (drawn in yellow.)  And, it’s nestled in the C and D legs of the Bat pattern that completed at 1415 (the purple pattern.)

After weeks/months of normally reliable patterns busting left and right, it’s so nice (not to mention profitable) to see patterns play out the way they should.

UPDATE:  2:20 PM

SPX traded through the small neckline and seems quite content to pause at the small fan line I posted about this morning.  It’s line k-4 on the chart below, and just so happens to correspond to the SMA 10 on the daily chart (1390.81.)

In H&S patterns, neckline breaks are often followed by a back tests.  If the NFP print in the morning is lousy, we should head down to 1372 pretty quickly.  If the numbers are great (or the market perceives them as guaranteeing another round of QE), the pattern will bust.

UPDATE:  1:15 PM

Be cautious with this smaller pattern, though.  The 60-min chart shows a distinct possibility of a bounce at the neckline (as happened with the larger pattern.) Focus on the bold, yellow TL on the RSI below.  I would suggest anyone considering piling on shorts protect themselves, as always, with tight stops.

UPDATE:  12:30 PM

Over on the right shoulder of the Head & Shoulders pattern we’ve been watching is a… H&S pattern.  It would complete somewhere just below 1394 and targets 1372 — the (wait for it…) neckline of the larger pattern.

Ever get the feeling the market is just toying with you?  Seriously, though, this fits rather well with the RSI indicators, which as I posted earlier, support the idea of another test of the neckline.

If we get crazy positive non-farm payroll numbers in the morning, all bets are off.  Barrons is reporting consensus estimates of 165,000 (below), while estimates 140K.



New H&S Pattern — 3 Comments

    • Well…here’s the thing.  The text message capability I emailed about earlier is
      apparently NOT broadcasting updates to posts — just the original posts

      As you probably know, I tend to post within the first hour of the session
      and follow this up with updates throughout the day (when warranted.) I
      also edit what I’ve already written as I go, so it’s not unusual to
      hit the save button 20-30 times every day.

      Does everyone want that many text messages every day? Or is it enough to get
      one message advising you that a post has been made, and then you can
      decide how often to check back in for updates? Or maybe you prefer
      other means of notification all together.

      This is your site. So, please give me your thoughts.

      • I see…  Personally I’d like a notification anytime you update, but I can see how this may not be what others would want.  I guess ideally we could choose what sort of things we want updates for (new post, update to post, etc).  I don’t know if wordpress has such a plugin, but I’m a developer and if we could define what it is you need I could create/donate it.