AUDUSD can be viewed as having dropped into a long term channel back in 1997.  As its 2011 efforts to break out indicate, any significant upside will be limited by that channel.

It now sits at a critical juncture —  the last fan line coming off the 2008 lows is the only thing standing in the way of a plunge to the midline currently around .85.  A hard bounce on this fan line, on the other hand, would buy it some time.

From a fundamental standpoint, AUDUSD is probably as good a canary in the inflationary/deflationary coalmine as there is.