UPDATE: Sunday night A quick update on our 2011 v 2007/8 comparison chart: Here’s a close-up. On Feb 27, 2008,SPX had climbed 120 points off the bottom (24 days) and was 8 points away from establishing a new higher high. Instead, it fell 131 points over the next 13 trading days. As of this past … continue reading →
UPDATE: 2:45 PM A quick look at the big picture. Check out the Big Red Line. Looks like a backtest, no? A closer look: UPDATE: 12:50 PM Very interesting Butterfly completing on Nasdaq 100 (NDX.) The 5 year daily chart shows it’s backtesting a three-year trendline. UPDATE: 12:40 PM SPX just a couple bucks from … continue reading →
UPDATE: EOD I’ve redrawn the channel to include today’s market action. The existing line (w/ shadows) would have accommodated yesterday’s rise, but not today’s. Channels can and do shift all the time, but this one caught me off guard. I believe the MCO indicator I discussed last night is still in play. The indicator has … continue reading →
On a day when Marketwatch warns… …the Federal Reserve goes out of its way to increase US exposure to Europe’s debt crisis. The good news is they’ll be able to pay us back the money they owe us. The bad news is, they need to borrow $500,000,000,000 from us in order to do it. … continue reading →
The McClellan Oscillator has been around for a while. As Stockcharts.com says, it puts momentum in the AD line. I first noticed a particular pattern while looking at the 2007 comparisons to 2011 in SPX. In short, when the indicator bounces sharply higher after a distinct low, draw a trend line that connects the low … continue reading →
UPDATE: EOD The Euro Mess is getting out of hand… Deposits by financial institutions in Germany off 12% since Jan ’10, 24% since Sep ’08. France, oddly, not as bad at 6% and 14%. Italy off 1% in retail dep’s (serious money’s already gone), 13% ($100B) by financial insitutions. In other words, banks don’t trust … continue reading →
UPDATE: 2:15 PM Checking in on our regression channel and requisite rising wedge (the exclamation point!) So far, so good. Looks like we should get to 1182 – 1188 before the fun starts. We should expect to see more divergence on the 5-min RSI and possibly the histogram soon. UPDATE: 12:45 PM Euro got a … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:00 PM Had a little more time to study this… It’s open to interpretation, but here’s what I’m seeing. I’ve stacked the Feb – May 2011 top over this 5 week consolidation and compared them point by point. There are a few discrepancies, but nothing that concerns me too much. The biggest question … continue reading →
POSTED: 2:40 PM This little pause brought to you by Fan Line C. Don’t worry, RSI and MCO promise plenty more downside to come. The H&S; completion is up ahead at around 1146. … continue reading →
You can’t make this stuff up. Seriously, it’s got all the elements of a Hollywood drama. From today’s WSJ: Jürgen Stark, chief economist (and chief hawk) of the ECB, just quit over the ECB’s decision to ramp up their version of QE. It leaves three Italians on the governing council versus only one German. That’s … continue reading →