UPDATE: 2:30 PM Watching all the Green Mountain Coffee news reminds me of a post I made in August… Worth keeping an eye on these things, folks. UPDATE: 1:00 PM Dill just correctly pointed out a potential bullish Butterfly that began with Point X at 1215 the other day. If the bearish Butterfly we’re working … continue reading →
UPDATE: 2:20 PM Continuation H&S; pattern close to completing on NDX. UPDATE: 10:30 AM Guess that worked out okay. I had no idea when I posted — just before falling into bed last night — that the market would nosedive only 90 minutes later. That’s the thing about technical analysis. It works extremely well at … continue reading →
UPDATE: 8:30 PM We reached the target we discussed yesterday and this morning; now, just looking for the reversal. In the meantime, here’s a nice view of the 2008 vs 2011 similarities. Pretty darned similar, when you see them up close like this. The principal differences are the depth of the plunge below the channel … continue reading →
Whether you’re Toyota or an investor in distressed Japanese debt, the USD/JPY relationship has rocked your world over the past few years. I’m no expert on the Japanese economy, but I find the Yen’s chart patterns pretty straight-forward. First, the view from 35,000 feet: Weekly since 1996 The most prominent features are the falling channel … continue reading →
UPDATE: 6:15 PM Finally, what feels like a little clarity… Last Thursday, we retraced to the .618 Fibonacci of the 1292 to 1215 dip — meaning, we recouped 61.8% of the drop from the 1292 high on 10/27 to the 1215 low on 11/1. For newbies, these events are significant, as they are the first … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:45 PM $5 Billion in POMO later, there’s an effort being made to turn the rising wedge break into a rising channel. It could happen, so stay alert for a break through the red channel line (bottom.) But, I still think the larger channel off the 1074 bottom will call the shots for now. … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:00 PM A close up of the channel, showing a likely reversal a the midline — which is also the .382 as mentioned below. Note the possible setup for a H&S; pattern (pink dashed neckline @ 1213) with potential to 1140. Here’s a closeup. UPDATE: 11:45 AM The dollar, solidly back in its channel, … continue reading →
UPDATE: 7:00 PM I think it’s safe to say DX and EUR are right back in their channels. There’s a very long ways to go from here. UPDATE: 11:00 AM The headline could read something like: Politicians Threaten to Resign over Prime Minister’s Appalling Plan to Allow People to Vote If that sounds like … continue reading →
UPDATE: 4:00 PM Heading off for the weekend and probably won’t get to post. One last thought… in looking at the rising wedge we’re in, the apex seems to be around 1340-1350. Wedges can and do expand (as this one has, many times). But, breakouts typically occur around the .66 mark, which in this case … continue reading →
UPDATE: 7:30 PM Any CDS experts out there? If the Greece “haircut” isn’t deemed a default, then it calls into question the value of credit default swaps. Depending on who you ask and how you measure them, there are $2.5 – 600 trillion of these (possibly worthless) things floating around — some presumably on the … continue reading →