There’s an interesting tug of war going on between DXY and GC.  As we forecast last week, GC has dropped down to test its SMA200.  At this point, it is also testing two key trend lines that we’ve been expected would come into play again. At the same time, DXY has finally broken back above its SMA10 — and continues to test its SMA100.  As detailed yesterday, which way it breaks should determine whether USDJPY or CL drives stocks next.

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Yesterday marked another failed recovery attempt by the US dollar.  It started out strongly, rallying .75 from the previous day’s lows based on the tax bill advancing in the Senate.  But, political turmoil struck again.  The latest twist in the Flynn/Mueller/Trump saga wasn’t exactly dollar-positive.  DXY closed in the red for the third session in a row.

We shorted DXY way back on Nov 9, when it dropped through its SMA10.  The move was confirmed on Nov 14 when the rising white channel broke down and hopes of a tag on the SMA200 or falling white channel top started looking iffy.

The bounce at the .618 Fib on Nov 27 gave dollar bulls hope.  But, it has still yet to close above its SMA10, let alone the SMA100.

A backtest at 95+ is looking less and less likely every day.  And, with another debt limit impasse ahead, the risks are mounting.  If it can’t rally based on the tax bill or the all but certain Fed rate hike, what’s it going to take?

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Between the Senate passing its version of the tax bill and the CVS/Aetna deal, futures are up almost 20 points this morning.

The DXY and USDJPY are getting a nice bump.  And, VIX is, of course, slipping. So, what could go wrong?

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They did it again.  The EIA just reported that the average price of regular gasoline for the month of November was 2.474.  This is all well and good, except for the fact that gasoline only sold for 2.474 one day during the month of November – the 1st.

Why the charade?  Energy is one of the most volatile components of CPI.  The Fed ignores it for many of its economic assessments.  But, for consumers, it’s a very real and unavoidable expense.  It shows up in everything from the cost of heating your home and driving your car to the price of groceries and manufactured goods.

By using 2.474 as the average price of gasoline, the YoY increase from Nov 2016’s average price of 2.105 was 17.5%.  Had the actual average price been used, instead, the annual increase would have been 20.3%. And, if Nov 2016’s average price hadn’t been artificially inflated by the Nov 1 Colonial Gas Line explosion (the yellow arrow below), the YoY increase would have been even higher.It doesn’t seem like a huge difference, but it matters.  Note, for instance, that Feb 2017’s 32% YoY increase in gasoline correlated with the highest CPI print in recent years: 2.7%.

In October, when the EIA reported an annual gas price increase of 11.1%, the BLS reported an increase of 10.8%.  Fuel oil and gasoline registered the biggest price increase of any CPI component.  But, by understating the actual price increase, reported CPI was limited to 2%.

As we’ve discussed many times, central bankers talk a good game when it comes to inflation.  For all their bellyaching about wanting higher inflation, they know full well that the resulting cost of living increases and higher interest rates would simply be unaffordable for a country that can’t even make ends meet with ZIRP (and, a tax cut in the works.)

So, they continue to walk this fine line.  Between errant calculations and periodic changes in how inflation is measured, they’ve managed to keep the headline number low enough. But, higher oil and gas prices — which keep algos happy and stocks on the rise — can result in rather inconvenient inflation.  They can try to crash oil prices, again.  But, that almost blew up the oil industry.

And, with the end of the year around the corner, they have to worry about tanking the stock market.  Instead, they’re using falsified data to sell investors on the notion that inflation is non-existent or, to use their favorite term, “transitory.”

Now, for a few charts and our new price targets for CL and RB.

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Unless something dramatic happens in the next 24 hours, November CPI will top 2% again.  This obviously lends credence to the overwhelming market expectation for a rate hike in December. – even though PCE is still languishing well below target.Yet, there are still two events in the coming days that could give the Fed pause: the tax bill (due for a vote in the Senate tomorrow) and the debt ceiling (will be reached next Friday.)  If either isn’t successfully navigated, will the Fed still have the nerve to raise rates?  And, if they don’t, what would that do to markets?

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Yesterday, I had one of those conversations that pops up every week or so.  This time, it was a tech executive who was up to his eyeballs in tech stocks and was growing very, very nervous.  He wanted to know if/when he should get out.

I’d just seen this chart from Christian Mueller-Glissmann of Goldman earlier in the day.  It reinforces what many of us believe about the recovery: we’re treading on dangerous ground.  I conveyed the info to my new friend, who replied exactly as I knew he would, “I’ll just have to get out whenever things start to get ugly.”Many investors have seemingly resigned themselves to the musical chair approach.  Hopefully, they’ll be able to grab a chair when the music stops. Listening to Powell’s testimony yesterday, there’s no reason to believe the Fed will willingly preside over such an event.

But, are things entirely under their control?  Can they keep the music playing for another few months or years?  Looking at the destruction of VIX, it’s easy to assume they can.  Yet, there are some natural limits to the means by which the market has been driven to these heights.  And, given that over 80% of daily volume is now machine-driven (algos, indexers, closet indexers, ETFs, etc.) perhaps a better analogy would be a crowded theater whose patrons are all eyeing the exit just in case someone yells “fire!”

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Following Citi’s warning that OPEC might be about to screw the pooch, Goldman is out with its own words of caution.

“With the rhetoric not matching the logic for the first time in years, we believe that the outcome of this meeting is much more uncertain than usual,” Courvalin wrote. “We believe that oil prices have overshot fundamentals and that price risks are skewed to the downside into Thursday’s meeting.”

The research included a nifty graph illustrating what we discussed last week: excessive long positioning has consistently resulted in price declines.Not surprisingly, CL has ignored these latest naysayers and has continued to hold its gains of the last two months — despite the negative divergence, excessive spec long positions, etc.And, even though prices at the pump continue to settle lower, RBOB is holding on to its gains.  With only 3 sessions left in November, are we looking at another 2%+ CPI read?

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Friday offered further confirmation of the distortion in markets driven by manipulated algorithm inputs.SPX was rolling over as the early 10AM close approached.  The only problem was that the SMA5 200 hadn’t even reached the 1.618 extension at 2599.41.  VIX suddenly dropped from 9.69 to 8.56 — an 11.7% plunge in mere seconds.  There would be no backtest of the 1.618 extension (at least on Friday), let alone the many other important support levels further south.

So, we have a new all-time low for VIX… and the bubble expands just a little further.  Just another day in the “markets.”

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Yesterday, the API released quite bullish inventory data which showed a large draw in crude (-6.4MM vs -2.2MM exp.) — the biggest draw since August.  WTI futures rallied sharply on the news, while RBOB bumped a little higher before settling back down.

This might be discouraging to those shorting oil and gas.  But, the EIA will be releasing its own data shortly.  And, the two sources often disagree.

The other factor worth considering is that the last time we had an API-reported draw this big (mid-August) CL proceeded to sell off about 10%.  And, speculative net longs are at an all-time high.  It should be an interesting day.

USDJPY is about to tag its SMA100/200.  If our thesis is correct, the reaction will give CL/RBOB all the cover it needs to nosedive.

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We had yet another head fake last night, as SPX closed below the latest rising trend line, the channel top and the SMA10.  Traditionally, these are all short-term negative indicators from a technical standpoint.But, of course, short-term indicators can’t compare with the impact of a paradigmatic VIX beat down.  It’s now off 30% since tagging our upside target last week.We should get that changing of the guards we’ve been discussing for the past few days — either today or tomorrow.  Keep an eye on USDJPY and CL/RBOB.  The algos sure will be.

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