Futures are off about 0.50% as we lead up to the open.

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Futures are slightly lower as we approach the open.

FWIW, Jamie Dimon is still talking overpriced equities and stagflation, stating that the risks are essentially double what the market thinks.

Meanwhile, as Trump’s trade war continues, non-US investors are understandably nervous about America’s shaky finances in light of Republicans spending megabill that could add $3.3 trillion to the already ballooning deficit.

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Whether it was Moody’s debt downgrade, Trump’s insane rants, or his picking a fight with corporates such WMT and AAPL, this was not a great weekend for the US. Any way you look at it, America was downgraded and markets are hinting at a “sell America” bias.

Futures are off sharply with the 10Y back above 4.50% and the 30Y back above 5.0%.

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Housing starts rose a measly 1.6% to 1.36M, but it was single family permits that really disappointed in April, coming in at 1.41M versus 1.45M expected and 1.48 prior. The slump is a reflection of falling builder sentiment due to higher Trump tariffs, a shrinking labor supply amide his crackdown on immigration, and persistently high mortgage interest rates.

Another economic data point which is usually ignored came in much higher than expected. Import prices rose 0.4% versus 0.1% for the month. We should see an even higher print next month when the front loading effect falls away.

Futures have come down off their earlier highs, but are still up slightly ahead of the open.

Keep an eye on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment due out at 10am. It is nearing all-time lows, and is one of the few important economic data points that can’t be influenced by politicians.

A spate of studies has shown that the average American family is having a very tough time with its finances.

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Following a strong March where consumers ramped up purchases in advance of tariff-induced price hikes, retail sales plunged in April to 0.1%, well below expectations of 0.4%. Combined with UNH’s 10%+ downdraft following news of a criminal probe, futures are off moderately this morning.

Even Walmart is warning of a weakening consumer and risks posed by prices elevated by Trump’s tariffs.

“The higher tariffs will result in higher prices,” CEO Doug McMillon.

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When asked why he robbed banks, bank robber Willie Sutton is reported to have replied “Because that’s where the money is.” This week, we’ve seen a spectacular bout of deal making and gift giving in Saudi Arabia that would make Mr. Sutton blush.

Futures are up modestly as ES tags its .786 Fibonacci retracement.

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CPI came in at 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, a little lighter than expected – but, only because most tariff price hikes hadn’t worked their way into the official print just yet. There’s very little chance, for instance, that new vehicle price increases will remain tame unless tariffs are eliminated altogether.

The biggest contributor to lower inflation remains oil and gas, which registered double digit declines. Unfortunately, the 12% YoY decline in retail gas prices has likely bottomed out unless CL and RB continue to fall. At current prices, the YoY delta will be back to flat – removing a key source of falling inflation rates.

Futures are marginally lower after an initial bump on the news.

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Trump blinked again, this time with China. The postponement of huge tariffs has sent futures soaring – right up to the 200-day moving average. Tariffs on Chinese imports will still be 30%, more than enough to eliminate the profit margin for many US retailers.

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Yesterday was a bust. About 30 minutes before I needed to leave for the airport, I had one of those kidney stone attacks that had me doubled over in pain. All I can say is thank goodness for pain killers.

While I made my plane, I wasn’t able to post at all. This morning, with the pain level more tolerable, I’ll catch everyone up on our charts.

Futures continue to be all over the map, buffeted by rumors of trade deals done and trade deals stuck. Currently, they’re up slightly.

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Due to some last minute travel plans, today’s analysis will be posted after 3pm ET. Thanks for your understanding.