Charts I’m Watching: May 20, 2025

Futures are slightly lower as we approach the open.

FWIW, Jamie Dimon is still talking overpriced equities and stagflation, stating that the risks are essentially double what the market thinks.

Meanwhile, as Trump’s trade war continues, non-US investors are understandably nervous about America’s shaky finances in light of Republicans spending megabill that could add $3.3 trillion to the already ballooning deficit.

continued for members

ES is snug up against the top of its falling white channel. It’s a pretty good fit and a logical place for a turn.

SPX is a little less clear as the lows don’t necessarily align with the highs.SPX’s RSI is back to overbought, but severe downturns have typically occurred on negative divergence.
The risk of oil/gas ceasing to suppress inflation is growing with each passing day. The problem is that while lower prices help lower CPI, they also discourage additional exploration and production – thus depressing inventory and elevating prices.

All this is happening against a backdrop of diminishing demand due to electrification. China is making great strides. Xiomi’s SU7, for instance, has a range of over 300 miles for $30,000. It’s not available in the US, but they’ve set up dealerships throughout Europe.
Note that the 10Y tested the purple channel top and reversed yesterday.  But, it’s higher again today, with the 2s10s still threatening a further breakout. GLTA