With currencies, commodities and yields coiling, it’s hard to shake the feeling that we’ve entered into a countdown of sorts.

While there’s reason to be optimistic from a pandemic standpoint, markets are making new all-time highs even though many important sectors of the economy are far from having recovered their mojo.

What gives?  What awaits us on the other side of New Years?

If I’m right, we face a major regime change in the currency markets which will have important implications for stocks.

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The rally-that-central-bankers-built continued overnight, with the BoJ winning the booby prize. As the largest owner of Japanese stocks, eclipsing even the Government Pension Investment Fund, the BoJ forced the NKD 2.7% higher on the day and a ridiculous 6% higher since last Monday.

This is how it’s done in Japan. As money supply expands at an astounding rate……the government is shoveling trillions into stocks.

And, it’s coming soon to a market near you.

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Not one to be left out, ES also rallied to new all-time highs.

Thank God we don’t have to worry about bubbles.

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ES edged slightly closer to our 3730.29 target at its 1.272 Fib extension overnight, this time coming within 3.79.  Unless it reverses prior to the opening bell, this complicates things.continued for members... (more…)

Wishing everyone a very, Merry Christmas and a New Year of peace and prosperity.

In another demonstration that the market and the economy are two very different animals, Personal Income dropped 1.1% MoM and Personal Expenditures dropped 0.4% MoM.YoY, Spending fell 1.3% and Incomes rose 3.8% – but to a lower low. Naturally, futures yawned and are back above their SMA10.

Needless to say, tossing out $600 stimulus checks like so many rolls of paper towels isn’t going to make a difference. Of the 100 most populous cities in America, only Toledo offers median rent of less than $600 per month.

There are still 11 million unemployed Americans, only some of whom will be afforded eviction/foreclosure protection under the latest stimulus bill (if it is signed into law.) The latest is that Trump wants Congress to up the stimulus checks to $2,000 per person.

Of course, he’s announcing it now without any Senate Republican support and when half of Congress has already left town. But, hey, it’s the thought that counts.  Merry Christmas indeed.

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As virtually all of our models have been warning, stocks are taking a big hit this morning. The tension has been building, simply waiting for a catalyst. With OPEX/Quad-Witching in the rear view, the UK virus mutation certainly fits the bill.

ES, off 128 points a few hours ago after coming within 6 points of our 3730 upside target, has rebounded sharply from its lows as algos cheer VIX’s pullback after testing its 200-DMA.

But this appears to be just the start of a very rocky road for markets which have previously ignored the worst disaster in any of our lifetimes. Can anyone really be shocked?

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Almost four months ago [see: Aug 24, 2020 Update] we noted that the next overhead resistance once ES broke above its Feb 3397.50 highs was the 1.272 Fib extension at 3730.37.

Seeing ES pop above its former highs means there is no specific overhead Fib resistance until the 1.272 extension at 3730.29 (SPX 3720.37.)

I didn’t consider gaining another 10% all that likely, so didn’t even bother showing it on a chart at the time.  In fact, ES’ first two pushes above 3397.50 failed miserably. It wasn’t until Nov 4 that it finally left the former highs in its rear view mirror.

Last night ES got within 7 points of that resistance we discussed all those months ago, reaching 3723 on quad-witching eve – begging the question “has the rally run its course this time?” It certainly appears so.continued for members… (more…)

DXY tagged our 89.88 target overnight, capping off a nice short that dates back to March 18 [see: Currencies to the Rescue.]With so many other instruments watching its every move, we’ll dig into whether the correction might have run its course and what it means for equities.

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Will Congress come up with an aid package? Unless they act now, millions of our neighbors are set to lose their unemployment benefits in the next two weeks. After the new year, they’ll also lose their eviction/foreclosure protection. “Merry Christmas” from our public servants. More like “good luck.”

Meanwhile, the market continues its meltup in anticipation of stellar retail sales and a vaccine rollout which will result in only another 100-150,000 deaths.

And the FOMC is wringing its hands, trying to figure out why historically low interest rates aren’t helping those who can’t borrow.

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