ES is finally joining the new-highs party, zipping up past its February highs after bouncing on the white channel midline again… …prompted by AAPL topping $500/share and splitting (don’t tell anyone, but it’s also tagging overhead Fib resistance.)continued for members…The bigger picture for ES and SPX:

VIX’s triangle continues to develop, with the ubiquitous shot across the bow this morning.Note also that while CL and RB are up nicely on hurricane fears, RB has (so far, at least) merely backtested a well-defined TL. In currencies, USDJPY and EURUSD are mostly flat while DXY continues its slide lower.

10Y yields continue to slide toward our 1.54 bps target, with negative rates also in view… …while the 2s10s has dropped back below the white TL to 48 bps – a positive for stocks unless it drops below 41bps and/or through the purple TL.Seeing ES pop above its former highs means there is no specific overhead Fib resistance until the 1.272 extension at 3730.29 (SPX 3720.37.) To be clear, this is a manufactured rally that wouldn’t be sustainable without enormous support from the Fed, the Treasury and from leadership from pandemic-friendly big cap tech stocks which are buying back their stock.

While the fundamentals would argue otherwise, we can’t ignore the “breakout.” The best we can do is to remain long until ES drops back below the former high at 3397.50 (SPX 3393.52.) I believe it will happen, but it could be weeks from now or 15 minutes from now.

I have back to back conference calls, should be back around 12:30-1pm.