pebblewriter

Posts

  • BTC: Musk’s Plus One

    See if you can spot the point at which TSLA disclosed its purchase of $1.5 billion in BTC.

    Yes, in a world where seemingly everything is making new highs, BTC joins the party – courtesy of Elon Musk.

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  • Mission Accomplished

    In another obvious show of how easily this market can be manipulated, ES’ final bearish Head & Shoulders Pattern was busted in the final five minutes of trading yesterday. This morning, SPX’s H&S Pattern will also be busted with a burst higher in the wake of another disappointing jobs report.

    And all it took was for the “Bad News is Good News” algo to pin futures to their ramp job highs until 9:31. The BN=GN algo, of course, has nothing to do with additional stimulus.

    We already know $1.9 trillion is on the way to some who desperately need it and countless more who don’t. It also has nothing to do with additional QE. That’s an ongoing $120 billion per month, rain or shine.

    No, it is about the usual tricks employed by central banks and their proxies: shorting VIX… …shorting bond futures……ramping WTI futures……and shorting the yen. They have all been employed over the past week just to make sure that any lingering bearish patterns were undeniably busted. Just another day in the “markets.”

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  • Update on Currencies: Feb 4, 2021

    A subtle shift is occurring in the currency markets. As expected, DXY has broken out after finally reversing at our 89.50-89.92 target. This comes as USDJPY is sneaking up on our 200-DMA target and EURUSD has almost reached our 100-DMA target. Once all these pieces slide into place, what then?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 3, 2021

    Futures melted up again overnight, reaching the .886 retracement of the late January swoon.

    Stocks have been well supported the past three sessions – not by fundamentals, but by a 37% hammering of VIX, an engineered surge in oil and gas futures, and the obligatory breakout in USDJPY.In other words, it’s the same algo nonsense that got us here in the first place.  With all the talk about market manipulation, funny how no one is talking about the Fed…

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  • Back to Earth

    Silver, GME and AMC are all tumbling this morning as equity futures are responding to dramatic moves in VIX, oil and currencies. In short, things are getting back to normal. Or are they?

    What if this was merely a backtest on steroids to stave off the bearish 10/20 SMA cross which would otherwise have occurred?ES reached our backtest target overnight, and now has some important decisions to make. continued for members… (more…)

  • Hi Ho Silver!

    The flustercluck continues. As we discussed last week, silver is the new shiny object for the Reddit short-busters.

    This morning SI decisively confirmed its channel breakout, topping the August 7 highs and forsaking the opportunity to backtest its 200-DMA. Unfortunately for gold bugs, GC has not tagged along.

    As SI closes in on our Nov 30 target, what lies ahead for the metals? Can GC keep up? And, how strong a backtest could we get today in equities?

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  • Total Flustercluck

    I can’t remember a time in the last 40 years when the market was turned on its head like this. Not surprisingly, futures have been all over the map as bulls and bears try to establish beachheads and central bankers try to figure out who the good guys and the bad guys are – and what to do about it. Short-sellers as victims?  Who would have thunk it?

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  • The Big Picture: Jan 28, 2021

    ES tagged our downside target yesterday, taking the opportunity to bag the 50 DMA in addition to the 1.272 Fib extension.  We should get a bounce here as the algos are all swinging into action. USDJPY has broken out as expected, CL/RB are inching higher, and VIX is getting smacked down.

    However, the bounce might now last.

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  • Back Again

    Futures are off sharply again this morning as VIX spiked to our 27.67 target a day ahead of schedule.

    Remember Run, Don’t Walk to the Nearest Exit?  That post was headlined by RSP, the equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF. It never did break out, but will instead gap lower on the open with a slew of gaps to fill to the downside.

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  • Blink and You’ll Miss It

    After nailing Friday’s downside target, ES made another “miraculous” recovery and is pushing toward new, all-time highs. Move along, nothing to see here… It will come as no surprise to members that the latest recovery was almost entirely driven by another collapse in VIX.  The other factors: more silliness from oil/gas and a healthy dose of short covering.This morning, as algos were deciding whether to complete another ramp job, VIX dropped down through its remaining moving averages – thus guaranteeing a positive open as the FOMC’s two day meeting gets underway.

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