Looking Back, Looking Ahead

I remember 2011 like it was only five years ago.  William and Kate got hitched.  Adele was Rolling in the Deep.  And, Ben Bernanke, our intrepid hero, blamed Congress for the market’s meltdown.  Oh, and I launched pebblewriter.com.

It was originally a Blogger site (pebblewriter.blogspot.com) and I did it mostly for fun, just to see if my thoughts on the markets could stand up to public scrutiny.

My first post was on May 2, 2011.  I had come across some articles on harmonics, and found it weird, but intriguing.  Combining harmonics with what little I knew about chart patterns, it seemed to me that the S&P 500 was nearing an important top.  So, I posted it.

2011-05-02 BacktestOkay, it wasn’t pretty.  But, it was accurate, which counts for something.  As it turned out, May 2 was the top.  It attracted a few regular readers, and I gained just enough confidence to keep the blog going.

Two months later, we scored big time.  An analog I discovered rewarded us with a 245-pt (18%) short, plunging exactly when and where we expected it to.

2016-05-18 SPX 2011This encouraged me to take the blog more seriously.  And, a few months later, I launched pebblewriter.com, offering subscriptions to serious investors and traders.

Needless to say, there have been many times when things didn’t go as expected.  It took longer than I would have liked to fully understand the growing manipulation going on in  markets, primarily through algorithms involving USDJPY, CL, VIX, bonds, etc.  And, I’m still a much better chartist than trader.

But, five years later, I’m pleased to say I’m starting to get the hang of it, averaging a little over 18% monthly since January 2015.  And, enough members have stuck around over the years that I’ve been able to make a living doing something that’s challenging and (usually) fun.

Taking a look back at the past five years, I was surprised at what I found.  A few key data points:

Screen Shot 2016-05-18 at 1.10.37 PMThey’re not zerohedge kind of numbers.  But, then, zerohedge doesn’t tell you where the market’s going to end up every day.  I have to admit being wowed by the last number.  2,100,000 words makes War and Peace‘s 587,000 seem skimpy by comparison.

My favorite part of the job comes on days like today, when we nail a forecast made the previous week– despite 20- and 30-point spikes in the interim.

And, once in a while, I get an email like this one I received today.  Totally makes my day!

I know you say not to do this, but I tripled down based on today’s post… I bought  XXX May 27 203.5 puts at 1.01, .93 and .84.  I was cursing you out when they got down to .82, but an hour later I sold them for 1.70.  I’m not exactly a big-time trader.  But, today paid for my son’s first year of college.  Singing your praises, my man!

Our five year anniversary kinda slipped by a few weeks ago without much fanfare. The markets were kinda crazy.  So, I’d like to make up for it.  We haven’t had a membership promotion in quite a while.  Let’s have a really great one and turn back the clock a bit.

From now through Memorial Day, we’ll offer our $1,800 Annual Memberships at 2011 prices, only $500.  If you want to lock in your price for the life of the site, select a Charter Annual Membership for $750.

To sign up now, CLICK HERE.

We haven’t offered memberships at this price since — you guessed it — five years ago.  And, it’s safe to say prices will never be this low again.

If you’re already a member, tell a friend and earn a free 1-hour phone consult or set of charts on a security, currency or index of your choice when they sign up.  That’s in addition to the $250 bonus rebate.

And, if your fund or company commits to one of our bespoke, institutional plans for 4 months or longer, I’ll come to your place for a full day of consulting.1

To sign up now, CLICK HERE.

Thanks, everyone, for a great run.  Here’s to the next five years being even better!

 

 

 

1 subject to availability, within contiguous 48 US states. Foreign travel available at additional cost.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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