Everything’s back to normal, with the eminis providing the ramp job rational appreciation the cash market was unable to accomplish.  Last night’s emini action is likely to land SPX right in the middle of resistance, but this should get it to 1700.

Best to be long on the opening, but much will depend on the ability to punch through 1698.  If it can, our next target is 1704.97.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

So far, so good.  Back in the channel..for now.

But, here’s the Baby Ruth in the kiddie pool…

UPDATE:  10:00 AM

SPX just busted all the H&S Patterns, so the ramp job’s work is done.  They can now return control of the market to all the saps who will turn on the boob tube and get excited about the NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS!

continued for members…

UPDATE:  10:10 AM

Just tagged 1704.56, which is good enough for me.  I’m back to the short side.

UPDATE:  12:30 PM

A very well-behaved market so far…  SPX’s tagged 1704.97 precisely, dropped 3 points, then retraced (an A-B-C) to precisely the .886 at 1704.55.  We should get a drop here.

At any point, the whole mess could come undone.  And, I really, really mean that — please don’t assume there’s no need for stops and/or hedging here.  Keep them at your comfort level; but always use them — whether long or short.

But, things are unfolding very much as detailed in our last forecast from Jul 24.  We’re a couple days behind schedule.  But, the low was close at 1676 (forecast: 1677) and Point B was also close at 1692 (forecast: 1691.)

Here’s the actual price action, overlaid on that forecast:

I see no reason the 1712 target wouldn’t still be in play.  The actual Point B came at the .707, so this supports the idea of a Crab Pattern.

In a moment, an update on the big picture and how we might bag 1823.

UPDATE:  2:05 PM

Just stopped out on the short at 1705; long again for 1712ish.  Charts in a moment.

UPDATE:  2:15 PM

The 1.618 of the smallest purple pattern points to 1707.20 — which we should be able to reach later today.  But, I think there’s a 50:50 chance of tagging the 2.24 at 1709.60 in the closing hour.

We could get a little pullback there — possibly to 1702 or 1703 — and a subsequent thrust up to 1712-1713 tomorrow morning.

UPDATE:  3:20 PM

Getting some weakness on SPX, off a couple from the highs.  It should arrest by 1703, but it’s worth taking an interim short just in case.

UPDATE:  3:23 PM

Just tagged the bottom of the channel.  If it doesn’t bounce back here, look for a backtest of the purple midline at 1702 at around 3:34.  Holding short with stops at 1705.

UPDATE:  3:32 PM

Stopped out on the short, back to full long.  If I’m right, look for at least a pause at 1707.28.  But, momemtum should come right back in after a drop of a point or two — with a rise to 1709 or even 1712 into the close or tomorrow morning.