The dollar: backtesting a broken falling wedge, or setting up a fall from a rising wedge?  Tough call…

Likewise for the USDJPY, which has tagged a .786, but hasn’t reached channel resistance just yet.  The .886 at 100.12 would perfectly backtest the neckline of the two H&S Patterns in play (red.)

Which would put it within .30 of breaking out of the falling white channel and a shot at avoiding completing the much bigger H&S patterns.

The EURUSD already tagged its .886 at the top of the red channel, so should start selling off as soon as it’s done backtesting its rising wedge.

Looks like equities have a little downside in them this morning before resuming the climb.  I’ll go short on the opening, but will look for a reversal around 1703.75.  If that doesn’t hold, 1698-1702 is the next support.

UPDATE:  9:50 AM

SPX just reached the purple midline, so I’ll try going long here at 1700.78.  I’ll give it a little leeway on the stops — 1698ish.

continued for members…

UPDATE:  11:25 AM

If 1700.68 holds this morning, the short-term extensions are supportive of an interim 1712 target.

NOTE:  AT THIS POINT, HOSTGATOR’S SERVERS WENT DOWN.  THE REST OF THE POST WAS COMPLETED ON PEBBLEWRITER.BLOGSPOT.COM.  NOW THAT THE SITE IS AGAIN OPERATIONAL, I’M COPYING IT BACK HERE FOR ARCHIVING PURPOSES.

Just Like Old Times – from pebblewriter.blogspot.com

Welcome to the old pebblewriter.  If you found your way here, you know that Hostgator — the outfit who host pebblewriter.com — is down this morning.  I have no idea when they’ll be back up, but I’ll post here until they are.  I’m getting status reports here:  https://twitter.com/HGSupport

A reminder, I will wrap up at 2pm today and will be on vacation Monday through Wednesday of next week.  I will post an updated forecast either this evening or tomorrow, assuming the servers are operating again.

Here’s where we are so far this morning…

I shorted on the opening at 1706.10, then went long at 1700.78 with an interim target of 1712 as detailed last week.

I posted several currency charts earlier this morning.  Here are the updated versions:

The dollar, which had poked up above the falling white channel midline in a rising wedge, broke down from the wedge this morning.  While the recent .786 tag could have been a significant bottom for DX, I continue to suspect the .886 at 81.11 is in the cards for Monday Aug 5.

Aug 5 shows up as a potentially significant date in many of my charts, including the USDJPY.  It marks the intersection of two important channels, as well as the recently broken neckline and the pale blue .886 at 100.12.

The EURUSD shows the greatest potential risk, with a recent .886 tag having occurred at the top of a falling channel and rising wedge.

Given all that, it’s quite possible the 1712 target won’t be reached until Monday — if then.  There continues to be great downside risk to this rally built on QE and ramp jobs.  I would go to cash for the weekend, but would continue to play the long position unless we reach 1712 or stop out.

I’d leave stops around 1698, but would close out the long on any significant weakness.  It has backtested the 1.272 and should be positioned for another leg up.  But, it’s also running on fumes…

I have to leave you now, but will post later this afternoon or evening.

GLTA.