The conditions remain constructive for our analog.  Both RB and CL have broken down and USDJPY is conspicuously not coming to the rescue. In fact, the only thing keeping SPX on the rise is VIX’s repeated threats to make new lows — threats that, so far, have been hollow.

continued for members…

CL’s rising purple channel has broken down, and it has even dropped back below the TL it briefly broke above.RB has broken down below its rising purple channel, though it is backtesting its falling purple channel and probably will until the time is right for stocks to tumble — Jul 30 per our analog.I’m not comfortable with the actual path forward just yet – will be working on this in the coming days.  For now, I’m comfortable being short.Though ZN is remaining low enough to support stocks, it still faces a nice spurt higher in the next two weeks.

Although all the attention is on DXY……it’s really USDJPY that will matter the most.

The latest iteration of the analog…UPDATE:  3:50 PM

Quick update shows TL support ahead at 2977ish.  Yes, the correction might have already started, but it could also bounce into 3047 on the 30th.ES has TL support at about 2987.More damage to oil and gas…