According to the CNN article, the Fed is finally getting worried about the effect the Iran war could have on inflation. Better late than never. We got a hint in the last statement, with several dissenters questioning whether there should still be a rate cut bias. Consumers – at least those who eat, drive cars, or buy anything, could have told them it’s already a problem.

It hasn’t risen to the level of worrying the markets, however. Stocks are still on an AI sugar high and the opportunities for a clean backtest are thinning out.

VX is still being quite cagey about breaking down below its SMA200 and channel bottom, leaving open the possibility of a good-sized bounce.

VIX, on the other hand, is promoting a damn-the-torpedoes-full-speed-ahead approach to stock prices.

And, don’t look now, but the 10Y has gapped down again.

It could be the drop in oil. But, it could also be the dispersion in markets is starting to worry some equity investors just enough that they’re seeking shelter.