Just a reminder, I’m on vacation the next three days and will be back Thursday morning.  Since no one’s looking, though, I’ll just slip in a few quick thoughts about where we are and where we’re going — big picture stuff.

I’ve operated under the assumption that SPX will complete the big Butterfly Pattern at 1823 — or die trying — for quite some time.  Recall, this was set up by the reversal at the .786 of the 1576 to 666 drop.

continued for members…

There have been many opportunities for SPX to reverse already.  Most times, an overnight ramp job or PPT operation appeared in the nick of time.  The absence of any big corrections on the way up has been troubling.  But, we can’t ignore the fact that nothing has seemingly been able to knock the bulls back — except the prospect that QE won’t go on forever at $85 billion/mo.

It appears to me that we’ll see a dip at 1712 probably later today (Aug 5) as well as another one around 1767-1770 on the way to 1823 in late August.

The current red channel is parallel to the last one, and it cuts right through the 1823 Fib and an important channel line around Aug 26-27.   Should it fail, then we’ll reassess.  Otherwise, there appears to be plenty of room for it to rally on up to silly-land.

The 1712 speed bump appears in several places: Fib levels, channels, etc.  But, the SPX RSI chart reinforces it nicely.

I’ll post more as I have time, but likely not at all intra-day.  I wish everyone a great week, and look forward to being back with you in a few days.