SPX reversed where we expected.  From yesterday’s member section:

Look for SPX to run into a brick wall at 2106.95 or so.  From there, it should be downhill.

The culprit, as anticipated when this analog first became apparent: USDJPY. [see: A New Analog Mar 27.]CL, however, continues to mitigate USDJPY’s effects.  Remember, the yen can weaken only as long as CL remains under control.

Conversely, a strengthening yen will allow CL to rebound (and the dollar to weaken) — as long as the euro also strengthens — which it has since hitting the .886 we discussed yesterday.

Our price targets for SPX remain in place, with the most likely timing either today or tomorrow.

continued for members…

If USDJPY holds at the SMA100 or just below at the white channel bottom, the damage to SPX should be limited to its SMA100.  Otherwise, there is considerably more downside potential.  Note the tangle of SMA support (10, 20 and 50) at 2080ish.

The dollar is under pressure from all corners this morning, with a backtest of the broken white channel and the rising purple midline appearing likely.