Today’s action plays out well with the analog I first posted back on April 9 [see: Analog Watch] and charted on the 10th and 11th [Analog Details.]

At the time, SPX had peaked at 1422, one point above a Butterfly target we identified on March 29 [see: All the Pretty Butterflies] and was on its way to our 1357 downside target (tagged later that day.)

The subsequent completion of the right shoulder at the .886 Bat pattern target of 1415 [see: A Swing and a Hit] got the downside started on May 1, and it’s been all gravy since then — including the completion and back test of the larger H&S and now, completion of the smaller H&S pattern.

The April 10 analog forecast called for a move to the low 1300s by May 16.

Anything could happen, but I’d say it’s pretty much on track.

There are a number of factors coming into play that will determine whether or not we will see a bounce in the 1295-1317 range that can send SPX back up to our 1472 target.   I’ll explain further in the next day or two.