I normally construct charts in log scale.  In general, I regard it as a more legitimate way of viewing time and price relationships.  But, I try to remember to check in on the arithmetic picture from time to time.

Here are a few arithmetic charts to consider…

It’s safe to say that the arithmetic charts agree with the log charts I’ve been constructing — that the next move is higher (absent much worse news out of the euro zone or NFP, of course).  If I’m wrong, I think the downside is in the 1275 area.

I just spent an hour perusing some of my favorite sites, and almost every one of them is extremely bearish at the moment.  I don’t know folks, I could be way out of line here…feeling pretty lonely in calling the bottom here again.

As I was discussing with a reader this afternoon, there have been a lot of these situations lately — where I seem to be the odd man out.  So far, it’s worked out pretty well.  But, I can’t escape the feeling it’ll catch up with me sooner or later.  Maybe it’s all the black swans circling us, their dorsal fins a sobering reminder of the cost of being wrong.

I know I’m repeating myself, but please use stops.  Things are much too hinkey to hang your hat on my or any other forecast without downside protection.

Stay tuned.