CL moved slightly beyond our target at the bottom of the rising channel to test the trend line from 1998.  It got a bounce there, but hasn’t broken above the LT falling red channel midline.  We’ll look to see whether or not it holds at backtesting the broken red channel bottom.Meanwhile, EURUSD’s rising channel has broken down again.  The first resulted in the falling red midline being back tested — a net positive — so the bulls need a quick reversal here if the uptrend is to continue.

USDJPY continued its bounce off the SMA100, but only got as far as backtesting the broken gray channel just shy of the yellow .618 at 120.11.

DX is strengthening as EUR and JPY fall off, and has almost reached Friday’s target.  It looks like too little, too late at this point. 

With the futures up 11 points, it appears likely to continue the white channel lower.  But, with the other currencies poised for a reversal, I’m not so sure.  It’s a good setup for a pop and drop for equities this morning.  But, then again, tomorrow’s the last day of the month/quarter…

continued for members…

The “market” continues to be boxed in between rising oil prices on one hand and a rising yen/euro on the other.    SPX is currently testing the gray channel midline as well as the SMA10/20.  I think it’s likely to reverse here at 2083 — but, we’ll keep an eye on the currencies and CL.Note that VIX, having reached the falling white channel midline last week, has backtested the .236 line.  Next target is the .786 at the large yellow channel midline.Quick look at the 10-yr…

I want to get the rest of the analog study posted this morning, so we’ll check back in on today’s action later.

UPDATE:  3:30 PM

Just finished the analog, which indicates that while USDJPY may close lower in the next few days, SPX likely won’t bottom out until April 14 or so.

So, we could see higher prices for a week or more until prices start dropping — though that would surprise me should USDJPY back off 120.11 today.  It’s clearly got the month-end and quarter-end in mind with today’s overshoot.

One appealing path forward for CL leaves room for a slightly higher high tomorrow — 49.25? — followed by a sell-off down to 45.84 by Thursday.

Although prices could inch higher over the next 24-48 hours, I’d be very leery of holding long overnight.

Here’s the path that makes the most sense to me here at the close.

GLTA.