Futures were all over the map overnight as 104% tariffs were levied on China. China responded by raising their tariffs on US goods to 84%.

The turmoil also roiled treasury markets, where rumors of China divesting itself of US treasuries resulted in a breakout in the 10Y and the 2s10s.

Equities have hit both our downside and bounce targets well ahead of schedule.

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SPX nailed our next downside target yesterday…

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The disarray out of the Trump administration continues, with Navarro spewing a stream of consciousness word salad on CNBC this morning while Trump spent the weekend working on his golf game.

ES is off another 3% this morning, but has been all over the map – even backtesting our 4859 target at the IH&S it completed back in December 2023.

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Futures are off another 3% after yesterday’s 4.50% debacle.  ES has plunged through our 5301 target and is fast approaching our 5153 target.

Although it’s a nonsense index, rumor has it that “certain people” follow the DJIA quite closely. This channel dating back to 2022 just broke down yesterday.

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Futures are off nearly 4% in the wake of Trump’s announcement of very severe tariffs which nearly everyone outside his administration agrees are a huge mistake. It’s merely the latest unforced error that this brain trust has unleashed on the economy and the markets.

ES has reached our 5501 target, with more to come.

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It’s finally here, and markets aren’t too optimistic as the session gets under way.  It’s the last chance to position for whatever chaos is about to ensue – which, for many investors – means taking defensive positions.

It was hard to get very excited about yesterday’s reversal, as SPY never could push past a backtest of the flag pattern which broke down last Friday.

Incidentally, I was curious about the origin of the word “tariff.” The Wikipedia page is interesting, and includes a snippet of what pretty much everyone outside of the White House thinks:

There is near unanimous consensus among economists that tariffs are self-defeating and have a negative effect on economic growth and economic welfare, while free trade and the reduction of trade barriers has a positive effect on economic growth

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Futures are off modestly in the lead up to Trump’s tariff announcement. Although yesterday’s technical bounce proves that bulls are still raring for a rally, the downside potential is very large if the tariff announcement isn’t, as Trump puts it, “nice.”

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With futures off another 1% this morning, in advance of Wednesday’s tariff announcements, it’s hard to think of a reason to buy.  Sure, ES tagged a potential H&S neckline, but it takes a certain amount of bravado to risk more losses on that particular chart pattern.

Only a few weeks ago, of course, the bet was that Trump would blink as stocks’ losses reached 10%. Seemingly, he did.

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PCE came in hotter than expected, falling squarely into the category of “good news is bad news.”

Core prices rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, while personal spending fell short of expectations at 0.4% versus 0.6% and personal income far exceeded consensus at 0.8% versus 0.4%. Anyone expecting the Fed to cut rates anytime soon will be disappointed with these data.

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Futures are off moderately following yesterday’s ugly self-inflicted wound which saw the S&P 500 give up its hard-fought 200-day moving average. Trump’s efforts to mollify the markets by downplaying tariff reciprocity were defeated by….Trump’s earlier-than-expected announcement of steep tariff’s targeting foreign auto manufacturers. If you’re unnerved by the all the chaos and uncertainty, join the crowd.

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