The Retaliation’s Retaliation

Futures are off another 3% after yesterday’s 4.50% debacle.  ES has plunged through our 5301 target and is fast approaching our 5153 target.

Although it’s a nonsense index, rumor has it that “certain people” follow the DJIA quite closely. This channel dating back to 2022 just broke down yesterday.

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Looking at potential bounce spots…ES has reached the bottom of the rising purple channel that dates back to the 2022 lows. This was also a tag of the red .886 at 5214. The better target is the purple .618 at 5153.60.

The equivalent for SPX would be around 5040, lower than the August lows at 5139. But, it would have to get below the red .886 at 5236 and the Aug lows at 5119 first.

The Dow is at the internal red TL, having obviously broken down from its purple channel. Perhaps time for the much bigger white channel to take over with a midline test? COMP is getting very close to making new lows, with 13873 a real possibility if 15708 breaks.I think I posted the other day about XLK. It’s getting very close to the 2022 highs – a 27.5% crash from recent highs.

VIX nailed the .618. Note that the 2s10s has widened to 40 bps – not fully reflected on the chart. This is a test, then, of the Jan 41 bps highs.