We’ve seen countless overnight rallies over the past month. Some of them carried over into the regular sessions, but most of them were faded. Yesterday’s plunge took SPX all the way to a key channel midline and Fib retracement and was followed by a 50-pt overnight ramp job, leaving ES at a key overhead resistance. … continue reading →
Ordinarily, investors might prefer lower CPI and PPI. But, so far, the market hasn’t reacted well. Why not? Sure, lower prices might give the Fed room to reduce interest rates and thereby goose the stock market. But, you have to ask “why” prices aren’t going up as quickly as before. Is it because corporations don’t … continue reading →
CPI drifted lower in February, coming in below consensus at 0.2% MoM and 2,8% YoY. Core was also 0.2% MoM and registered 3.1% YoY. The print was in line with our model, which also suggested a bounce yesterday, Futures, initially up 1.5%, are indicating a still strong 1% higher. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are flat after another ugly day left multiple indices at their next downside targets. continued for members… … continue reading →
Just about every investor I know has owned NVDA for a while and has made a pretty penny on it. So, it pained me to deliver the charts’ warning back on Feb 27. From NVDA: Good Enough? Judging from its price action overnight, NVDA’s earnings and outlook were good enough. As we approach the open, however, … continue reading →
Futures are tumbling again following a substantial bounce on Friday. China has issued retaliatory tariffs, adding to the chaos Trump’s trade war has unleashed. continued for members… … continue reading →
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent explained the market’s recent volatility this morning: “The market and the economy have just become hooked, and we’ve become addicted to this government spending,” Bessent said. “There’s going to be a detox period.” Thank goodness. We were worried it had something to do with the general chaos emanating from Washington: weakening … continue reading →
Perhaps it’s fitting that the largest reported trade imbalance in history takes place as Trump has instituted massive new trade barriers. The market has lost its luster once again, this time plunging instead of ramping overnight. continued for members… … continue reading →
DXY reached our 105 target overnight…and is still dropping.While this reflects the sharp drop in interest rates (thank you equity correction), the US is still a net importer. So a drop in the value of the dollar means higher inflation. Not exactly a good look when folks are justifiably worried about stagflation. Speaking of which, … continue reading →
They’re certainly working so far, driving major indices below their 200-day moving averages. ES reached our 200-day target with ease, followed by an obligatory bounce which failed overnight. If the tariffs result in a reduction in duties charged by our trading partners, that’s all well and good. The markets wouldn’t bat an eye. Unfortunately, the … continue reading →