SPX nailed our next downside target yesterday…
…, setting up a nice bounce in the after-hours.
continued for members…
This is a technical bounce, with rumors of deals being in the works fueling its ascent.
So far, nothing has changed re the tariffs, no US factories have been built, no additional employees have been hired, and no additional clarity has been offered US corporations.
ES backtested its IH&S neckline.
While SPX backtested its .786, its 2022 highs, and the yellow channel .236 line.
COMP didn’t quite reach our 13873 target at the .618/channel bottom.
But, the DJIA backtested its 2022 highs and a fan line from its 2022 lows.
VIX and VX are way, way off after breaking out.
And, the USD is slightly lower.
CL and RB are both slightly higher…
…but the 10Y has soared – right back to its SMA200 resistance. Since the US-China trade war seems to be gaining ground, I suspect the 10Y’s behaviour is the result of China selling US treasuries more so than any reflection of inflation.
Note that the 2s10s is even closer to a breakout above horizontal resistance and the rising purple TL. A push above these levels would likely be very damaging to stocks.



