Futures are off modestly in the lead up to Trump’s tariff announcement. Although yesterday’s technical bounce proves that bulls are still raring for a rally, the downside potential is very large if the tariff announcement isn’t, as Trump puts it, “nice.”

continued for members…

The H&S neckline came in very handy yesterday, providing the support the algos needed…

…especially for the Dow, which everyone recognizes is a ridiculous index by which to measure the market – but is Trump’s favorite.
There are quite a few scary charts out there for stocks right now.

And, VIX has plenty of upside potential. Currencies continue to vacillate, unsure whether or not the tariffs will blow up into an international trade war. Gold aptly reflects that fear (and, of course, the likelihood of increased inflation.)

It doesn’t help that RB is breaking out.

Yet, for all the inflation fears, the 10Y is still showing great downside potential to at least 3.94% and even 3.5%.

The 2Y, however, is already leaving the station – meaning the 2s10s is very likely to make new highs – further decimating stocks. The biggest wild card remains Trump. If the market really starts to fall apart and the Dow’s rising channel from 2023 breaks down, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take for him to declare tariffs were successful and will be eliminated.

Stay frosty…