I can’t remember a time in the last 40 years when the market was turned on its head like this. Not surprisingly, futures have been all over the map as bulls and bears try to establish beachheads and central bankers try to figure out who the good guys and the bad guys are – and … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: January 2021
ES tagged our downside target yesterday, taking the opportunity to bag the 50 DMA in addition to the 1.272 Fib extension. We should get a bounce here as the algos are all swinging into action. USDJPY has broken out as expected, CL/RB are inching higher, and VIX is getting smacked down. However, the bounce might … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply again this morning as VIX spiked to our 27.67 target a day ahead of schedule. Remember Run, Don’t Walk to the Nearest Exit? That post was headlined by RSP, the equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF. It never did break out, but will instead gap lower on the open with a slew of … continue reading →
After nailing Friday’s downside target, ES made another “miraculous” recovery and is pushing toward new, all-time highs. Move along, nothing to see here… It will come as no surprise to members that the latest recovery was almost entirely driven by another collapse in VIX. The other factors: more silliness from oil/gas and a healthy dose … continue reading →
In Friday’s post VIX: Back From the Dead we noted that VIX had recovered from the breakdown below trend dating back to Nov 27. This morning, it’s testing overhead resistance from Jan 4 and, if it’s able to break through, will likely take on resistance from Dec 21 or even Oct 29. Bears might want … continue reading →
The biggest charting development overnight was VIX’s resurrection. Breaking down below its channel bottom dating back to Nov 27 drove stocks to new highs. Will rising back above it bring stocks back down to earth? continued for members… … continue reading →
BTC has reached our next downside target – the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 29,280. As we discussed in our last update [see: Jan 12 BTC Update]: As we noted [in our Jan 7 update] after it reached the 40,138-40,180 target range, if it can’t hold 40,180, then we could look for a backtest of the … continue reading →
It was another potential ugly day that turned into a barn burner as VIX followed through on its bearish 10/20 cross and broke below a trend line dating back to November.The day was also about expectations. AMZN, for instance, which had broken down after establishing a pennant pattern dating back to Sep 2 and hasn’t … continue reading →
Twelve days ago, we noted that the equal-weighted S&P 500 had reached important resistance at the top of a channel dating back to the 2007 top [see: Run, Don’t Walk.]At the time, RSP hadn’t quite reached the 1.272 Fibonacci extension. Now it has. The only reason futures are up 23 points is because, as we … continue reading →
The algos are pleased with themselves this morning, pumping futures 30 points higher on the fact that VIX crashed over 7% overnight. At one point, the SMA20 was only 5 cents below the SMA20.Friday’s dip didn’t quite reach our 3730 backtest target – which, ironically, leaves the door open to an even lower low. Can … continue reading →