pebblewriter

Month: January 2021

  • The US Dollar’s Big Day

    The EURUSD, which bottomed when stocks did last March, has officially reached potential reversal territory at our 1.2336 target.

    At the same time, the 2s10s has bounced off support and shot higher. Per our yield curve model – which has been early but never wrong – this is a quite bearish development.And, oil – which jumped the shark over the past 24 hours – has tagged our 50.22 target.Even XLF is due to reach a reversal zone today (29.8) as rates have shot higher in the wake of the Georgian runoff.

    Either this is the start of a chart-busting rally, or things are about to get very ugly right as ES’ 50-day SMA has reached its Dec 21 lows.

    And, it all comes down to whether the USD can hold its recent lows.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 5, 2021

    ES backtested its SMA10 overnight and is back in the red with a potential bearish 10/20 cross in the works.  The last one (in late October) fueled a swift 9% correction. Our downside targets remain unchanged.

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  • Update on Bitcoin: Jan 4, 2021

    BTC reached our next upside target at 29,890-30,108 [see: Dec 22 Update on BTC.]  Had it remained in either the rising pink or purple channel, it might have taken quite some time. But, as we discussed last month, it broke out of both channels and topped the Fib target at almost exactly the time forecast by our cycle model.

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