Looking for Value in All the Wrong Places

The algos are pleased with themselves this morning, pumping futures 30 points higher on the fact that VIX crashed over 7% overnight.  At one point, the SMA20 was only 5 cents below the SMA20.Friday’s dip didn’t quite reach our 3730 backtest target – which, ironically, leaves the door open to an even lower low.

Can big bank earnings convince investors to continue overpaying for stocks?

continued for members

Remember that until XLF pops above 31.38 and stays there, this is a triple top. And, it goes without saying that a significant pullback in XLF would be hard for SPX to ignore.A second fan line from the November lows provided ES’ latest bounce…The VIX near-miss that still might play out…. The bigger picture on VIX…The yield curve model continues to warn of additional downside… …with the 10Y still elevated thanks to Fed support. The DXY is just biding its time, waiting for rates to break down. ZN remains broken down, but it isn’t too ugly yet.  In fact, it’s holding up pretty well for something which has broken down. It continues to pose problems for GC – which remains below important resistance posed by the SMA200 as well as the cloud.

SI is holding up better, but has further downside if it can’t remain above its cloud.Oil and gas continue to levitate – not breaking down yet but not making new highs either – for now. more later…