When Phase One was announced, stocks established a new steeply rising channel that aimed straight to 3300. When the channel was repeatedly tested, a new, steeper channel was established. Watching Peter Navarro this morning on CNBC, I hear that Phase One is really, truly, definitely, almost, pretty much sort of in the bag. Or will … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: December 2019
One of the more interesting price cycles I’ve worked on over the years is that of oil. Oil and gas have proven to be lucrative trading vehicles, and their price movements have been extremely helpful in forecasting interest rates, currencies and inflation. The most fascinating cycle I’ve discovered is the periodic peaks and crashes in … continue reading →
Wishing everyone a very, Merry Christmas and a New Year of peace and prosperity. … continue reading →
The fourth of December’s five gasoline price readings hit EIA’s website yesterday. The average stands at 2.47, 9.1% above 2018’s December reading. Unless another large component of CPI takes a nosedive this month, CPI could top 2.3 or even 2.5%. This is a level not seen since Oct 2018 (the shaded area below) when the … continue reading →
Traders have disappeared from sight this morning. Volume is about as low as it could be, despite a big miss (which didn’t even make the front page of CNBC.com) in Durable Goods new orders: -2.0% vs +1.2% expected. YoY, the drop was 5.7%, the worst since Jul 2016. Futures plunged all of 4 points which, … continue reading →
One of the market’s favorite tricks is to close right below resistance and blow through it the following morning on the “strength” of the overnight ramp in the futures. SPX came within 0.67 of our next upside target yesterday, suggesting a potential downturn, but will blow right through it on the open. This morning’s ramp … continue reading →
No, I’m not talking about Philly Fed Index, which at 0.3 versus 8.0 expected and 10.4 prior, is really stinking up the joint. instead, I’m talking about the 2s10s breakout which, as we’ve discussed countless times in the past, spells serious trouble for equity markets. This is exactly the scenario we discussed earlier this week … continue reading →
All the bullish factors which have kept stocks aloft the past two sessions are still going at it. Hence, the futures’ snoozefest even as Trump is about to be impeached.The only potential fly in the ointment remains oil and gas, which have reached an important decision point. continued for members… … continue reading →
I spend a lot of time and energy trying to spot potential downturns. I think the average buy-and-hold investor needs to know when downside risk is elevated and when events occur that could trigger a substantial drop. Even when things are apparently going well, I always post support levels just in case. While there’s a … continue reading →
The first is that VIX has again been hammered below a trend line dating back to Nov 2017. The algos are all over this and futures have soared 17 points. Total capitulation, at least for the time being.The second is that gas prices remain stubbornly high – signaling a coming spike in inflation unless prices … continue reading →