Traders have disappeared from sight this morning.  Volume is about as low as it could be, despite a big miss (which didn’t even make the front page of CNBC.com) in Durable Goods new orders: -2.0% vs +1.2% expected.  YoY, the drop was 5.7%, the worst since Jul 2016.

Futures plunged all of 4 points which, of course, sent VIX to the rescue with a compensating plunge.

continued for members…

The picture for ES and SPX…

Will we finally get a backtest of any kind?  SPX could dip to the 1.618 at 3206 as the SMA5 200 has reached it.  Anything below that would set up a backtest of the red channel bottom at 3200 and then the SMA10, currently at 3175.

RB and CL are long overdue for a correction, so this theoretically remains a threat. While we’re talking theoreticals, VIX has technically broken out of its falling purple channel and, if it can remain above the red TL at 12.55, could pose headwinds for stocks.

This would put additional pressure on USDJPY to rally.  Note that DXY closed back above its SMA200 and the red channel line we discussed last week. 2s10s is seeing a little pullback… …as TNX/ZN are very close to their long-awaited turning points. In sum, plenty of potential for some downward pressure…but, volume is so light that it shouldn’t take much to keep things in line.

More later.

UPDATE:  3:55 PM

Looks like a decent chance of a sell-off here in the last few minutes.  Far from a sure thing…and, it would fit better from a timing standpoint tomorrow.

Just a reminder, the market is open tomorrow from 9:30 AM to 1:00 PM. Futures stay open a little later – from 1:05 to 2:00 depending on the instrument.  The full schedule can be found here:  https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_2019Christmas_Holiday_20191003.pdf

I’ll post in the morning only unless something interesting occurs.  I plan on taking off Wednesday through Friday.