We’ve had multiple target tags the past few sessions, with the latest being CL – which just reached our upside target.  The chart below, from our Oct 3 Update on Oil, illustrates the timing issue TPTB face with CL’s rise from February.

As discussed yesterday in Welcome to Peak Oil continued rise will certainly help support equities, but it would result in higher year-over-year inflation measurements — which would strengthen the argument for higher rates.So, from here on we’re on breakout/breakdown watch.  CL, USDJPY, VIX, DX…they’re all in a position to do one or the other.  And, don’t forget about DB, which reached our 13.88 target yesterday: the 61.8% retracement of its latest plunge.continued for members…SPX reached 2169.60 yesterday, close enough to the triangle top and our 2170-2173 target range to have finished its latest pop; but, it remains to be seen whether it’s finished.While CL is up against overhead resistance……DX has deeply retraced August’s highs.  But, on the yellow grid, it has plenty of upside — especially now that it has broken out past the purple TL.USDJPY is also poised for action.  With the SMA200 having reached the rising white channel/flag, there’s an elevated chance that USDJPY will rise up to meet it.  Note it never quite reached the purple .618 at 104.447.If USDJPY backtests, instead, its SMA100 and CL backs off the overhead resistance, we’re looking at a return to the triangle bottom at SPX 2150 — at which point it’ll have to decide whether to continue the triangle or test the next lower line on the rising white channel.

The height of the triangle is only 20 points, now.  So, playing the swings back and forth will become less and less fruitful and increasingly tricky.

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