VIX has reached a key Fibonacci level and two channel lines and has formed a falling wedge.  It is likely to reverse course soon.  Unless it breaks out of the red channel, however, its rise would be contained to 18 or so.

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The smaller harmonic patterns point to potentially lower values, so look for a drop to the mid-13s if the move up is contained.

The RSI has also reached two TL’s of support in addition to forming a falling wedge.  Though the rise’s potential would be limited if the next higher white channel line holds.

Taking all the above in account, the path forward is as clear as mud.  One possibility that would be consistent with my equity charts is a moderate move up now (30-50 points lower on SPX), followed by a decline into September/October (as equities recover into the elections.)

VIX’s long-term chart can be viewed as a series of waves — with the current major wave being downward sloping.  The recent moves have followed channels that resonate with those of twenty years ago.

The RSI channels also reflect consistency.  The latest drop on the weekly chart has reached an important TL of support, though there is lower potential if VIX is able to break through current support.

If we take a closer look at a daily chart, we can see that smaller moves have also followed the major channels.  Here, we see the past three years.

And, here’s a close up.

Here’s the same chart with another set of channel lines filled in.