In our last update on COMP, I noted that the rising wedge we first charted in October had held off a second attempt to best the Jul 20 highs.  The upside case looked better as a result of both higher highs and higher lows.  But, it wasn’t a slam dunk.  From Dec 4:

If [COMP] can’t make the leap, then there’s plenty of downside ahead: the red .618 at 4872, the white channel midline at 4500, etc.  But, that’s not the way it’s shaping up.

As it happened, COMP had already peaked two days prior, and couldn’t make the leap.  The wedge played out beautifully, and those downside targets were taken out in quick succession.  By the time the dust settled at 4209, COMP had shed almost 19% from its December highs.

continued for members…It’s not a beautiful falling channel, but it’s legit.  The overshoot last November and December can be discarded, as they also exceeded important Fibs.  And, the channel top was confirmed by April’s reversal at the .786 at 4969.83.

The challenge isn’t so much the upside as the downside.  Last August’s lows should have reached 4243 — a goof that was remedied in February.  But, the result was a sloppy job in dealing with the rising white channel.

Instead of a clean test, COMP dipped below it on January 20, completing a large H&S Pattern that targeted 3427 — roughly the 1.618 extension of the rise from last October.  The dip was immediately bought thanks to sharp reversals by CL and USDJPY that same day.

Two weeks later, when COMP closed below the neckline, CL again rallied — but, this time by roughly 80%.  It drove COMP 18% higher, enough to seriously damage (but not completely destroy) the H&S.

If they can hold it above the white midline, then the next upside targets are the bundle of moving averages at 4815ish, followed by the yellow channel top at 4950.  If it can break out, then new highs aren’t that far away.If, on the other hand, COMP breaks down below the white channel midline at 4673, the next support is the yellow midline around 4500, ideally in mid-June, followed by the red neckline at 4440-4480 and the previous low and white channel .236 line at 4116.

GLTA.