By my count, SPX either tagged or passed through the SMA100 over 30 times in the past two sessions.  ES continued the assault overnight, with the latest attempts fueled, of course, by USDJPY and CL.

Looking at CL, though, it’s just possible that the moving average and Fib combination that led us to identify 1999 as a turning point several weeks ago will actually hold.

continued for members…

CL is on its way to backtesting its own SMA100, which would mean a breakdown of the super accelerated purple channel and potential test of the white channel bottom.If it plays out, then SPX could actually tag the purple channel bottom as we’ve been expecting.  Downside targets include the triangle bottom at 1992ish, followed by the purple channel bottom at 1989ish.One key to watch — how quickly USDJPY bounces back above the white TL and purple channel bottom.UPDATE:  9:35 AM

SPX could bounce here, as USDJPY just reached the .786.  But, CL still hasn’t reached its SMA100.  I’ll switch to long and see how it plays out.  Tight stops, as CL might get down to 37.26. UPDATE:  9:40 AM

Not holding.  Back to short here. UPDATE:  9:43 AM

CL tagged 37.26, but still dropping.  Going for lower, or just trying to get SPX to 1984.49 backtest? UPDATE:  9:45 AM

Just reached the 1.272 at 1984.49.  Decent place for a rebound as long as USDJPY holds and CL reverses.  Long with tight stops with 1989.38-1991 target. Bulls aren’t out of the woods, as NKD looking weak.UPDATE:  9:53 AM

That’s probably close enough.  CL’s bounce seems to be failing at the SMA100.  Though, USDJPY and NKD coming on strong.  To cash here until the conflict is resolved. Next downside support for SPX is 1979, then 1972, then 1963.29 (.500 Fib.)

UPDATE:  10:01 AM

CL making new lows, USDJPY giving up ground too.  Back to short. SPX’s SMA5 10 almost caught down to index.  Will probably see a bounce up to 1989.38 at this point.  CL is backtesting the SMA100 again.  Back to sidelines if it spikes above it.UPDATE:  10:30 AM

The red 1.618 at 1979 should provide a reversal.  Note that ES is closing in on the bottom of its red rising wedge — probably around 1977.50. With any luck, it’ll correlate with USDJPY tagging 112.42 and CL tagging 36.35 (though it has further potential to 35.96 — maybe after close?)  At that point, I’d expect to see CL, USDJPY and SPX all rebound.UPDATE:  11:00 AM

SPX just got within a few cents of the red 1.618 as ES tagged the red wedge bottom, USDJPY the .886/1.618, and CL the white .786.  I’d switch to long here with very tight stops.  Initial target is SMA5 20 around 1984.83, followed by a backtest of the purple channel around 1989.

UPDATE:  11:11 AM

SPX likely just taking a breather after topping the SMA20.  Need more CL bounce here if going to reach 1989, but CL and USDJPY are both running into overhead resistance.  And, ES has reached an internal midline.  Back to cash here until it sorts itself out — probably when it finds SMA5 10 support around 1983. UPDATE:  11:52 PM

Just tagged the SMA5 50 at what might be close enough to the purple channel bottom.UPDATE:  12:12 PM

SPX has reached the purple channel bottom.  If it’s going to reverse, this would be the place.  I’ll try a short position with tight stops here.UPDATE:  12:21 PM

Not reversing yet, and there’s a danger of a breakout. I’ll revert to cash and step to the sidelines if it pops through the white TL.ES has reached the top of the white channel.UPDATE:  12:30 PM

Not sure the TL will hold, with the SMA5 100 and 200 just overhead.  Watch your stops carefully.UPDATE:  12:42 PM

This is about all I can feel very comfortable with at this time.  I’d cash out and step to the sidelines until CL declares its intentions.Just a little nervous that it’s going to rebound here at the SMA5 50 at 1988ish.  If it breaks below the SMA5 50 and 20, I’d gladly reenter a short, as CL is probably going sideways for a reason. New lows coming for CL, but needs to be enough to break a potential rising channel for SPX.I think they’re trying to let CL down easy, perhaps to the white .886 at 36.35, with the balance to 35.96 to come after the close.  It might be easier if SPX tagged and reversed at the SMA5 100  first — now at 1994.  So, we could get another bump up to tag it where it intersects with the white TL — possibly around 1993.40ish around 1:30-1:45.

UPDATE:  1:10 PM

Kinda breaking down a little here, through the SMA5 20, so I’ll try going back to short.UPDATE:  1:22 PM

Pushing above SMA5 20 again — probably heading up to that white TL/SMA5 100 intersections discussed earlier, now about 1993.50.  Back to cash.UPDATE:  1:40 PM

SPX reached the TL as USDJPY tagged its white channel top and CL its SMA5 50..  ES has rebounded by .886 (but, has completed a little IH&S.)  If SPX can’t reverse here, then it’s likely headed back to the SMA 100 at 1998.94.  Back to short with a hard stop at 1994.20. UPDATE:  2:13 PM

Looks like a very good chance SPX will run up and tag the SMA5 200 at 1996.40ish.  I’ll cut it loose if it exceeds 1994.30.

UPDATE:  2:43 PM

CL and USDJPY are bouncing on their channel bottoms, so SPX will probably also bounce here.  Back to cash until one or both break down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UPDATE:  2:50 PM

USDJPY just fell below its channel bottom again, so I’m back to short.  Clearly, they have a downside target in mind — as CL and USDJPY keep settling slowly lower.  They just don’t want it to get out of hand and start plunging on high volume.  I still like the .500 Fib at 1963.29., though I’ll be surprised if it’s allowed to tag it today. UPDATE:  3:00 PM

It appears as though ES is targeting the red TL at the white .886 at 1979.92 at the close.  If so, that would leave SPX around 1981.79.  A close there would put it within 18 points of the .500 Fib at 1963.29 — a reasonable expectation.    Just thinking out loud here, but it would allow ES to tag its SMA10 — currently at 1960ish — and bounce back a bit to preserve SPX’s .500.Another possibility is ES purple .618 at 1970 – the equivalent of SPX 1973ish.

UPDATE:  3:22 PM

CL dropping through its .886, which means it probably has further to go.  I’ll assume SPX does too.  Just be careful with stops, as we’ve seen what happens when if CL turns quickly.

ES has reached its red TL, so SPX would require it to dip below.  I’ll take profits here, wait and see. Lots of time left for another leg down.

UPDATE:  3:26 PM

CL making new lows and USDJPY is dipping, back to short.  If ES dips below 1977.50, we should see some volume come in.UPDATE:  3:31 PM

There’s the .886.  From the looks of CL and USDJPY, we’re not done.  Holding short for now.UPDATE:  3:43 PM

CL and USDJPY just popped, so we could get a bump in SPX as well.  Back to cash here, and we’ll pick up the short again if there’s another push lower.UPDATE:  3:47 PM

USDJPY reversing.  If it’s going lower, it should turn here.  Back to short with very tight stops.UPDATE:  3:57

Although I expect it to move lower in the morning, I’d only hold short if you can hedge or at least watch it closely overnight.  Otherwise, closing it out here.

UPDATE:  8:45 PM

Quick update on where we stand…