We’ve seen several attempts to put in a reasonable backtest fail, lately, as USDJPY and/or CL suddenly spikes higher midstream and stocks spend the rest of the day rallying. 
Today could be different. Yellen is speaking today, and Mr Market loves nothing more than to put a good scare into the old gal lest she think hawkish thoughts.
Then again, it’s entirely possible that TPTB are merely delaying the inevitable in order to preserve SPX’s positive results for March.
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