After Thursday’s melt-up, we were left to wonder whether or not a backtest of any significance was in store.  It’s safe to say the conditions are, again, just right.  Will CL and/or USDJPY permit it?

With the rising white channel in the rear view mirror, CL has completely backed off its breakout of its rising purple channel and a near miss of its SMA200.continued for members…If USDJPY can manage to backtest its SMA20 at 112.99 — the timing of which is up in the air, then SPX might still have a chance at 2017. This is the trend line to watch. The futures are indicating a potential drop to 2028, though there’s also a clear path to 2009.66. UPDATE:  12:50 PM

I’ve been trying to take a little bigger picture, focus more on swing moves and less on day trading.  My feeling, over the past couple of months, is that with the constant BTFD, CB saves, CL and USDJPY ramp jobs, etc. it’s been nearly impossible.  I’ll give it a try today, but I’m not at all convinced it makes sense just yet.

In any case, this is where it needs to turn down if our short is going to work out. UPDATE:  EOD

We got a little selloff going around 2:30, but it was quickly erased by USDJPY and CL.  The outlook remains negative in the short run with the SMA200 , now at 2016.66, as the next downside target. GLTA