One of my favorite childhood memories was playing Gin Rummy with my grandfather who, whenever he caught me with way too many cards in my hand, gleefully cried out “timber!”

With seemingly everybody long equities and very few of them bothering with protection, this morning’s downturn has that kind of panicky feel. Sixty points on ES is a lot. The reality is it could be much more if some of the algo drivers currently hanging by a thread break down. Our favored targets are much lower.

I’m especially interested in the 10Y futures, which are nearing our upside target this morning…

…and USDJPY, which finally broke down after six months of central bank coordinated, stock-propping, ramp jobs.

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