Investors got a taste of reality yesterday, and it was a little scary. Whether COVID, inflation, tapering or just plain exhaustion from the constant meltup, markets remain very overdue for at least a pause. The charts suggest it will be significant.Of course, with ES holding its new, higher 10-day moving average overnight, we’re supposed to believe everything will be okay. Stay tuned.

continued for members…

ES has climbed back on top of the purple midline for the moment at least… …conveniently above its SMA10.This noticeable bump suggests the later path to the 3.618, but leaves the door open for the quicker tag. As usual, VIX will play a big role. Note that it’s at most another day or two from a bullish 10/20 cross (bearish for stocks.)

CL bent but didn’t break. I’ll update the CPI charts this weekend and see how much flexibility the Fed has left.And, RB is still at the top of its multi-year range and triangle.

Although USDJPY looks like it should continue down to backtest the purple channel again, there is an alternative that would call for support here. I don’t think it will, but traders should be aware.

The thin white line running through yesterday’s low is the .236 channel line of the huge rising white channel.

The dollar is taking a pause here, again – likely just to slow the correction.

Silver’s bounce is fizzling, and its testing the SMA200 again. I have serious doubts as to whether it will hold. I’d short on any drop through 25.80.

GC has a little more cushion – with the rising SMA10 about to cross above the SMA100 and, potentially, the SMA20. This would be a nice positive for GC – which is still not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. ZN confirms this. If it can’t break out of the falling purple channel, it is likely to take GC down with it.

More later…