Yesterday delivered the initial stages of a potential downturn.  The after-hours action, again, threw it into question after — you guessed it — more whispers of progress on the trade front.Naturally, we also saw more algo-baiting nonsense in VIX, USDJPY and crude.The record books will reflect that the market continues to hit new all-time highs.  But, what about price discovery?  Is it still a “market” when prices are manipulated so easily every single day?

continued for members…If ES can work back below 3076 by the open, it sure helps the bears’ case.  Otherwise, more levitation and guesswork as to where things shake out…

USDJPY continues to ramp higher but has obviously reached the top of the flag pattern, with the SMA200 again coming into play. VIX threw several shots across the bow — all in service of keeping ES above 3076.  But, it has yet to break down below the red TL on the daily chart.

CL reversed off its SMA200 yesterday, but is returning to test it as we approach the open.The 10Y sold off again overnight, but has yet to make a lower low.The 10Y yield is still threatening a breakout… …as is the 2Y.And, one of the stellar performers in the latest rally has run into overhead Fib resistance.  AAPL has completed a butterfly pattern as it backtests the white channel from which it broke down.  Note that its RSI continues to suggest a significant top as it reaches the red TL which has marked a long, drawn-out period of negative divergence.UPDATE:  09:58 AM

ES is lurking right at 3077 while VIX has reversed at horizontal resistance.  Notable, AAPL has respected the 1.272 so far. ISM services will be out in a few…

UPDATE:  12:33 PM

The apparent near-term target and the one which really matters. Note that SPX’s SMA10 should be up near its 2.618 Fib at 3047.34 by tomorrow — increasing the odds of a rendezvous.