It’s day 4 of the nearly complete IH&S.  USDJPY, a drag on equities for much of yesterday, apparently got the memo and is threatening another breakout.On the other hand, CL and RB – yesterday’s algo treats – are slumping and VIX remains non-committal.  Put it all together, and SPX/ES remain within striking distance of a breakout.  But, there’s been absolutely no follow-through.  I suppose the absence of an affirmative statement is the statement.

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ES neckline is currently around 2666.  Note that while it continues to make higher lows, it’s also making lower highs — aka consolidation.  But, it also leaves the door open to a downturn. SPX’s is about 2670 — meaning ES would complete its before SPX does (i.e. watch for head fakes.)

The SMA200’s have now risen so high that another backtest could be seen as a net positive.  However, it also makes a dip below them even easier.VIX continues to dip just enough to keep SPX/ES within striking distance, but never enough to push them over their necklines.Our working thesis has been that SPX and ES were merely marking time while COMP prepared to backtest its SMA200.  That moving average is now at 6778.18, only 0.4% lower than the Apr 2 lows and about 5% lower than current prices. But, I’ll gladly give up on that notion if ES, SPX, DJI and COMP can break out this morning.UPDATE:  10:03 AM

SPX just reached its neckline – time to make a decision.  I suspect it’ll falter here, and would side with the bears at this point unless proven wrong.But, it sure wouldn’t take much.One area where I’ve been consistently off over the past month or so has been CL and RB.  After a solid, profitable run between 2015-2017, the breakout, subsequent failure, and re-breakout has eluded my predictive powers.I remain bearish, overall, but have had a hard time determining turning points.  Having said that, RB tagged its purple TL again and could at least backtest the white channel top if the previous high doesn’t hold.

While we wait for SPX/ES to make up their minds, I’m going to take the next hour or two and work on a new model/forecast for oil and gas.

UPDATE:  2:00 PM

SPX, ES and DJI have all reversed at the point where they might have broken out.  In other words, still in limbo. I have to zip out for a meeting, should be back to post my CL and RB thoughts before the close.

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

Not quite ready to post CL and RB, but wanted to note that SPX just pushed through the neckline — at least for a moment.  As I type this, it’s backing off – thus preserving its options.  Thge SMA200 is up to about 2598 and SMA10 at 2633.  I think 2633 would make a nice target for tomorrow if we see a sell off, and 2598 is almost exactly a .618 retrace from today’s highs.  In other words, I’d lean towards staying short for anyone open to overnight risk or who can hedge. Updated downside targets in the event it doesn’t ramp higher overnight.