Futures have opened up a 14-pt gain overnight, positioning SPX to finally break through its IH&S neckline at 2670.  Leading the way: USDJPY, which broke out yesterday… …and VIX, which is finally breaking down after weeks of indecision. The bulls are not out of the woods just yet.  SPX still has to hold 2670 and then its important 2.24 Fib extension (2702.63) in order to break out.  But, if the Dow is to be believed, this morning offers an important opportunity for the bulls.  Will they take it, or are we looking at another head fake?

continued for members…

Note that DJI is set to pop above the white channel top.  But, the more important break out is the purple channel top.  It’s actually the top of a rising wedge.  And, breaking out of a rising wedge is a very, very bullish development.  This makes 24625 a very important line in the sand for the Dow, and by proxy, the market.  Note also the presence of the SMA50, which has halted DJI’s advance a couple of times, lately.

Likewise, if SPX can get past the white channel midline and purple channel .786 line at 2680, it should be in the clear.

ES is already there, and needs only to clear the white channel .786 line.

As discussed yesterday, I have been working on a total update of the CL and RB charts.  I am quite bearish at the moment.  For the most part, the charts support my stance.  Though, the prospect of a broader shooting war in the Middle East is a clear and present danger. I will post the results on a separate posting shortly.

UPDATE:  8:30 PM

My apologies for not getting the oil and gas forecast posted as soon as I’d hoped.  I’ve been studying and charting for the past 11 hours and am not quite there.  I’ll take it up again in the morning with fresher eyes.  In the meantime, here’s how things turned out today.

SPX popped at the open to overtake the neckline and tag the channel midline, then gradually lost ground.  By the looks of it, it will continue falling on Monday to backtest the SMA10.  But, of course, Monday’s a lot of potential headlines away.

VIX dropped quite a bit, especially considering SPX lost ground on the day.

TNX is pushing the envelope again, likely a source of anxiety for equity investors.

And, the dollar gained a bit.It weakened against the yen but held its own against the euro. I will have much more to say in the dedicated post, but CL and RB finished up slightly on the day. And, DJIA finished kinda in limbo.  If I adjust the channel slightly, and considering the reversal at the SMA50, it was bearish.I’m battling severe allergies at the moment, but hope to wrap up the oil and gas post sometime tomorrow.